Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Macroeconomics

<div class="content-highlight"><p><em><strong>The government should set up a new national pension fund to save the economy.  Securitising future pension payments may be the answer to the growing corporate debt problem.</strong></em></p></div><p>As noted by Yongding Yu and Ting Lu in a <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cwe.12141/epdf" target="_blank">recent paper</a>(pdf), China's corporate debt issue will continue to grow unless their is ultra loose monetary policy (4% inflation and 4% rates) or much lower growth (Chart 1), in the absence of either they forecast Chinese EBITDA will trend to zero in 2030.  Given that China appears to be…</p>

The government should set up a new national pension fund to save the economy.  Securitising future pension payments may be the answer to the growing corporate debt problem.As noted by Yongding Yu and Ting Lu in a recent paper(pdf), China's corporate debt issue will continue to grow unless their is ultra loose monetary policy (4% inflation and 4% rates) or much lower growth (Chart 1), in the absence of either they forecast Chinese EBITDA will trend to zero in 2030.  Given that China appears to be…

Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties (1567411D HK)

Haitong Securities Co Ltd (A) (600837 CH)

Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (3618 HK)

Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co. (600000 CH)

Poly Real Estate Group Co., Ltd (600048 CH)

Grandjoy Holdings Group Co., Ltd. A (000031 CH)

China Merchants Property Develpmt (200024 CH)

Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone (600663 CH)

China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (A) (600999 CH)

China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co., (601601 CH)

Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co (600415 CH)

Changjiang Securities Company (000783 CH)

China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK)

How a Debt to Equity Swap Plan in China Could Work