Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. 

I'm a highly experienced sell-side analyst with in excess of 22 years of covering Asia Pacific equities, the past 19 years immersed in event strategies encompassing M&A risk arbitrage, directional long/short, stub trades and restructuring.  

My background also includes accountancy (liquidation/bankruptcy/receivership) earlier in my career and as a chief financial officer of a global commodity company based in the US and Mexico.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Hopewell's Egregiously Bad Offer, But What Can You Do?

StubWorld - Set-Up & Unwind Extremes: AVIC, Kolon

StubWorld - Set-Up & Unwind Extremes: AVIC, Macau Plays, Guoco, Hang Lung

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

My insight <a href="http://bit.ly/2UdywZ2" target="_blank">Hopewell Holdings To Be Privatised</a> had a shelf life of seven and a half hours before <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2283" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2283:1">Hopewell Holdings (54 HK)</a> officially <a href="http://www3.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/SEHK/2018/1205/LTN201812051392.pdf" target="_blank">announced</a> a privatisation offer by way of a scheme, at $38.80/share, a 46.7% premium to last close. 
The offer price is final (page 4 of the announcement).
The Wu family and connected parties (the Offeror) control or beneficially own 350.97mn shares or ~40.41% of shares outstanding, therefore disinterested shares total 59.59%, which implies a blocking stake is ~5.96% of shares out, or US$175mn if using the last closing price. Southeastern Asset Management <a href="http://sdinotice.hkex.com.hk/di/NSForm2.aspx?fn=CS20180925E00024&amp;sa2=as&amp;sid=83&amp;corpn=Hopewell+Holdings+Ltd.&amp;sd=06%2f12%2f2017&amp;ed=06%2f12%2f2018&amp;cid=0&amp;sa1=cl&amp;scsd=06%2f12%2f2017&amp;sced=06%2f12%2f2018&amp;sc=54&amp;src=MAIN&amp;lang=EN&amp;" target="_blank">holds 6.99%</a> of shares out but is well in the money. 
$38.80 backs out a 36% discount to NAV, or ~41% discount if including the "hidden value" as discussed in my prior insight. That's probably enough to get it over the line - it is 11% above the highest closing price in the past ten years - but not exactly a knockout when compared to Hong Kong-listed precedent property transactions.
The Scheme Doc will be dispatched "as soon as practicable".  The timeline for a Hong Kong scheme is ~4 months, although the circular may be delayed to incorporate an independent expert's property valuation report and/or the full year results, now that the financial year has been brought forward to March. The Long Stop Date is six months from this offer announcement.
Potentially this will trade ~$35-36/share if taking the view it wraps up in six months.

My insight Hopewell Holdings To Be Privatised had a shelf life of seven and a half hours before Hopewell Holdings (54 HK) officially announced a privatisation offer by way of a scheme, at $38.80/share, a 46.7% premium to last close. 
The offer price is final (page 4 of the announcement).
The Wu family and connected parties (the Offeror) control or beneficially own 350.97mn shares or ~40.41% of shares outstanding, therefore disinterested shares total 59.59%, which implies a blocking stake is ~5.96% of shares out, or US$175mn if using the last closing price. Southeastern Asset Management holds 6.99% of shares out but is well in the money. 
$38.80 backs out a 36% discount to NAV, or ~41% discount if including the "hidden value" as discussed in my prior insight. That's probably enough to get it over the line - it is 11% above the highest closing price in the past ten years - but not exactly a knockout when compared to Hong Kong-listed precedent property transactions.
The Scheme Doc will be dispatched "as soon as practicable".  The timeline for a Hong Kong scheme is ~4 months, although the circular may be delayed to incorporate an independent expert's property valuation report and/or the full year results, now that the financial year has been brought forward to March. The Long Stop Date is six months from this offer announcement.
Potentially this will trade ~$35-36/share if taking the view it wraps up in six months.

Hopewell: A Compelling Offer, But Compelling Enough?