European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Gubel/​Prosegur: Acceptance Period, Spread

Gubel/Prosegur: Offer Results & Potential Delisting Bids

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Top shareholder Gubel (59.9% stake) launches a cash partial takeover offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosegur-cia-de-seguridad-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21290:1" rel="noopener">Prosegur Cia De Seguridad Sa (PSG SM)</a> at €1.83/share, cum dividend, except for €0.0661/share dividend payable on 1 December.</li>
<li>Premium 27.4%, 4.1x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA, 7.5x Fwd P/E. The founders profit from an underperforming share price to increase their stake, and this could comfortably be financed with the dividends.</li>
<li>Gross spread, including December dividend, is c. 7%, which is quite good even considering risk of apportionment, although patience may be needed to accumulate a large position.</li>
</ul>


Top shareholder Gubel (59.9% stake) launches a cash partial takeover offer for Prosegur Cia De Seguridad Sa (PSG SM) at €1.83/share, cum dividend, except for €0.0661/share dividend payable on 1 December.
Premium 27.4%, 4.1x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA, 7.5x Fwd P/E. The founders profit from an underperforming share price to increase their stake, and this could comfortably be financed with the dividends.
Gross spread, including December dividend, is c. 7%, which is quite good even considering risk of apportionment, although patience may be needed to accumulate a large position.


Gubel/Prosegur: Partial Takeover Offer at Interesting Spread