European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Gubel/Prosegur: Partial Takeover Offer at Interesting Spread

Gubel/​Prosegur: Acceptance Period, Spread

Gubel/Prosegur: Offer Results & Potential Delisting Bids

G4S Deploys Its Defences and GardaWorld Increases Its (Final?) Offer

Event-Driven

On 23 February, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g4s-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21948:1" rel="noopener">G4S PLC (GFS LN)</a> urged shareholders to accept Allied's offer as bid battle ends.
<div>
<ul>
<li>With both bids now final, the outcome depends on G4S shareholders.
<ul>
<li>the latest time by which either offeror must have satisfied the acceptance condition of its offer is 13.00 on 16 March 2021.</li>
<li>75% acceptances in the case of Allied Universal.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
The 245p offer values G4S at c. £3.8 bn, c. 4.3% higher than Garda's hostile offer.
<ul>
<li>
It represents approximately 0.8x EV/Fwd Revenue (vs. 0.6x for Securitas), 9x EV/Fwd EBITDA (vs. 8.1x for Securitas) and 17x P/Fwd EPS (vs. 13.2x for Securitas).
</li>
</ul>
This seems game over and the market, which had run ahead of itself on the back of Garda's interest, now believes that Allied is highly likely to win the contest.
<ul>
<li>Hedge funds are reducing positions.</li>
<li>G4S shares are trading tight at 243p, a gross spread of 0.8%, which does not leave much upside.</li>
</ul>
(This insight is labelled bearish as G4S is trading tight to terms)

On 23 February, G4S PLC (GFS LN) urged shareholders to accept Allied's offer as bid battle ends.


With both bids now final, the outcome depends on G4S shareholders.

the latest time by which either offeror must have satisfied the acceptance condition of its offer is 13.00 on 16 March 2021.
75% acceptances in the case of Allied Universal.




The 245p offer values G4S at c. £3.8 bn, c. 4.3% higher than Garda's hostile offer.


It represents approximately 0.8x EV/Fwd Revenue (vs. 0.6x for Securitas), 9x EV/Fwd EBITDA (vs. 8.1x for Securitas) and 17x P/Fwd EPS (vs. 13.2x for Securitas).


This seems game over and the market, which had run ahead of itself on the back of Garda's interest, now believes that Allied is highly likely to win the contest.

Hedge funds are reducing positions.
G4S shares are trading tight at 243p, a gross spread of 0.8%, which does not leave much upside.

(This insight is labelled bearish as G4S is trading tight to terms)

G4S PLC

G4S: White Knight Prevails