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bullish
Global Rates – Discussing the divergent drivers of US and EUR breakevens
SUMMARY
- Recent fall in US inflation breakevens driven by change in growth expectations and trade policy developments
- US breakevens appear somewhat cheap versus fair value framework, with near term inflation risks still skewed to the upside
- European breakevens have outperformed due to seismic shift in German fiscal policy, leading to a backup in intermediate yields on the German curve.
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