Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Jim Walker is the chief economist at Aletheia Analyst Network Limited, an independent research platform for the Asia Pacific region. Prior to joining Aletheia he was the founder and chief economist at Asianomics Group an economics and strategy research consultancy company formed in late 2007. 

Before establishing Asianomics he was the chief economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. He joined CLSA in late 1991. Over the years Dr Jim achieved numerous ‘best economist’ rankings in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investor and Greenwich surveys of fund managers. In 1995 he wrote about the prospect of Asia being forced off its de facto dollar peg “within the next two-three years”. The Asian Crisis, precipitated by the Thai baht devaluation, began in July 1997.

In recent years he is best known for forecasting the US 2007 downturn and financial sector meltdown in his series of ‘Apocalypse’ reports. He remains deeply sceptical of the prevailing wisdom in central banks’ approach to monetary policy.

Over the years he has also developed an approach to analysing Asian economies based on profit and credit cycles where the importance of investment spending as the driver of economic activity is explained.

Early in his career he worked in his native Scotland as a research fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute for Research on the Scottish Economy, and then at The Royal Bank of Scotland’s Edinburgh headquarters. He holds a Bachelor of Arts Honours degree and a doctorate in economics from the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

Chief Economist

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Debt Concerns, Thai Consumers, and Rubber Gloves

Devilish Details: Might the Third Wave Be the Worst Ever?

COVID-19: A Perspective on Policy: The World Economy’s Immune System Is Already Severely Compromised

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<p>There is enough to worry about in the global economy at the moment but the arrival of COVID-19 and the huge, unexpected shock it has brought to economic growth will shake to the roots the complacency that has grown up about debt accumulation over the last decade. That is no bad thing. Since 2007 external debt in Asian countries has risen 190% and, while growth has been good enough to ensure that that represents only a relatively small rise in terms of nominal GDP, it has increased on the basis of no external shocks to nominal growth or major disruptions to exchange rate values. That is always the case when the cost of debt is suppressed by policy action. Asian economies are about to have a debt rethink akin to the Asian Crisis. </p>

There is enough to worry about in the global economy at the moment but the arrival of COVID-19 and the huge, unexpected shock it has brought to economic growth will shake to the roots the complacency that has grown up about debt accumulation over the last decade. That is no bad thing. Since 2007 external debt in Asian countries has risen 190% and, while growth has been good enough to ensure that that represents only a relatively small rise in terms of nominal GDP, it has increased on the basis of no external shocks to nominal growth or major disruptions to exchange rate values. That is always the case when the cost of debt is suppressed by policy action. Asian economies are about to have a debt rethink akin to the Asian Crisis. 

Forgive Us Our Debts?: External Debt Complacency Was the ‘old Normal’