Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Jim Walker is the chief economist at Aletheia Analyst Network Limited, an independent research platform for the Asia Pacific region. Prior to joining Aletheia he was the founder and chief economist at Asianomics Group an economics and strategy research consultancy company formed in late 2007. 

Before establishing Asianomics he was the chief economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. He joined CLSA in late 1991. Over the years Dr Jim achieved numerous ‘best economist’ rankings in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investor and Greenwich surveys of fund managers. In 1995 he wrote about the prospect of Asia being forced off its de facto dollar peg “within the next two-three years”. The Asian Crisis, precipitated by the Thai baht devaluation, began in July 1997.

In recent years he is best known for forecasting the US 2007 downturn and financial sector meltdown in his series of ‘Apocalypse’ reports. He remains deeply sceptical of the prevailing wisdom in central banks’ approach to monetary policy.

Over the years he has also developed an approach to analysing Asian economies based on profit and credit cycles where the importance of investment spending as the driver of economic activity is explained.

Early in his career he worked in his native Scotland as a research fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute for Research on the Scottish Economy, and then at The Royal Bank of Scotland’s Edinburgh headquarters. He holds a Bachelor of Arts Honours degree and a doctorate in economics from the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

Chief Economist

Economy/Covid-19/Hong Kong/China-USA/Hainan

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Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

The roadmap for global growth over the next 2-3 years will involve a lot of pain. Following lockdowns there will come an investment recession and then a secondary bank credit contraction. In short, we are more pessimistic about the shape of the rebound than the IMF and most Mainstream economists. The former sees a sharp downturn in 2020 (-3% for global output) but an ultra-robust recovery in 2021 (+5.8% real output growth). The latter group also see a V-shaped recovery in the US, euro area and Japan. But we believe that they are 1-2 years too early in forecasting the boom. And if the IMF’s concerns expressed in its Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) in October 2019 are to be believed, its ‘severe risks of a worse outcome’ caveats contained in the April World Economic Outlook are more like a base case than a low probability scenario.

The roadmap for global growth over the next 2-3 years will involve a lot of pain. Following lockdowns there will come an investment recession and then a secondary bank credit contraction. In short, we are more pessimistic about the shape of the rebound than the IMF and most Mainstream economists. The former sees a sharp downturn in 2020 (-3% for global output) but an ultra-robust recovery in 2021 (+5.8% real output growth). The latter group also see a V-shaped recovery in the US, euro area and Japan. But we believe that they are 1-2 years too early in forecasting the boom. And if the IMF’s concerns expressed in its Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) in October 2019 are to be believed, its ‘severe risks of a worse outcome’ caveats contained in the April World Economic Outlook are more like a base case than a low probability scenario. 

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