Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

With a Positive Real FF Rate Restored, FOMC Hiking Cycle Is Nearly Done

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CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>FOMC's median Goldilocks projections entail faster growth, lower inflation, but rates staying higher for longer. With the fiscal booster, real GDP is likely to grow over 4%QoQsaar in Q3CY23. </li>
<li>A 25bp hike on 1st Nov'23, coupled with fiscal retrenchment (as spending restraints kick in), and resumed student loan repayments eating into PCE, will cause an abrupt contraction in Q4CY23. </li>
<li>With USD set to stay strong (as ECB and BoE face less tightening pressure), net exports will be a drag too, and a short US recession will last into Q1CY24.</li>
</ul>


FOMC's median Goldilocks projections entail faster growth, lower inflation, but rates staying higher for longer. With the fiscal booster, real GDP is likely to grow over 4%QoQsaar in Q3CY23. 
A 25bp hike on 1st Nov'23, coupled with fiscal retrenchment (as spending restraints kick in), and resumed student loan repayments eating into PCE, will cause an abrupt contraction in Q4CY23. 
With USD set to stay strong (as ECB and BoE face less tightening pressure), net exports will be a drag too, and a short US recession will last into Q1CY24.


Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

FOMC Goldilocks Projections Overlook Fiscal Drag & Student Loan Repayments