bullish
Business Cycle Watch – Recession or Rebound?
232 Views03 Aug 2023 02:41
SUMMARY
- Welcome back to another business cycle-themed article post the business cycle week where we covered a potential rebound in manufacturing and what that might mean for assets in the time to come.
- Today we shed some light on the kings of business cycle data – GDP and GDI – which are both widely known for being THE metrics to watch (together with the labor market) when assessing if the economy is actually slowing down or not.
- Normally the two follow each other quite closely, as they are conceptually identical, but currently, we are faced with an interesting gap with GDI screaming recession while GDP is hinting at a rebound amidst a skyrocketing fiscal deficit, higher public interest expenses and a much stronger labor market.
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