Independent Economist, Forecaster and Strategist

Thomas Lam

Tom has over two decades of experience in the realm of economics and finance, with expertise ranging from covering the global economy, deciphering financial markets, including macro forecasting, to advising on investment strategy.

He commenced his career in New York, initially at a large money-center bank and then at a hedge fund.  Thereafter, while in Singapore, he worked at two financial institutions and later joined academia.  

Tom has been consistently ranked among the top five most accurate economists in the world on forecasting the US economy overall (placed third, last published by the “Bloomberg Rankings of Top Forecasters”).  During the Global Financial Crisis, he was also acknowledged as the second-best US forecaster worldwide.  

Moreover, he was exclusively identified by Bloomberg to have accurately predicted the onset of the 2009 US recovery 16 months ahead of the official announcement.  Consequently, he has been widely publicized as one of “Wall Street’s Most Prophetic Economists”.

Fed Snap (Jan 31 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways

A Unique High-Frequency Indicator of Recessions

The Eventual Shift in Fed Policy: When & By How Much?

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Although an unchanged meeting outcome was priced-in, the surprises were conditionally dovish  </li>
<li>The presser, economic projections, dotplot and post-meeting statement collectively moved financial markets </li>
<li>My dove-hawk FOMC scale offers additional information on tracking the evolving Fed speak and policy expectations</li>
</ul>


Although an unchanged meeting outcome was priced-in, the surprises were conditionally dovish  
The presser, economic projections, dotplot and post-meeting statement collectively moved financial markets 
My dove-hawk FOMC scale offers additional information on tracking the evolving Fed speak and policy expectations


Fed Snap (Dec 13 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways