Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

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Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>The ECB is likely going to hike tomorrow and even after the repricing this morning, we still see risk/reward favoring a bet on a hike.</li>
<li>With the inflation forecast likely being hawked up (as per sources in Reuters), we see a very high probability that the ECB will react to the hawkish adjustment of staff projections with a hike and continued hawkish messaging.</li>
<li>If the ECB raises the inflation profile to &gt;3% territory in Q4-2023 and Q4-2024, that would constitute a &gt;0.3%-points increase in the profile, which will most certainly have to be followed up by policy action.</li>
</ul>


The ECB is likely going to hike tomorrow and even after the repricing this morning, we still see risk/reward favoring a bet on a hike.
With the inflation forecast likely being hawked up (as per sources in Reuters), we see a very high probability that the ECB will react to the hawkish adjustment of staff projections with a hike and continued hawkish messaging.
If the ECB raises the inflation profile to &gt;3% territory in Q4-2023 and Q4-2024, that would constitute a &gt;0.3%-points increase in the profile, which will most certainly have to be followed up by policy action.


EUR Watch – The ECB Will Soon Reveal Their True Inflation Vs Growth Preferences

EURO/US DOLLAR

EUR Watch – The ECB Will Soon Reveal Their True Inflation Vs Growth Preferences