Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

I have been working for +17 years as a quantitative researcher, offering my investment research insights to investors through two private companies I have founded (Retracement Levels Ltd. and QUANTRADING AG); more recently I worked as a Portfolio Manager at Capital Theory Investment Management, LLC, a CTA based in Austin, Texas (USA), where I developed and ran automated algorithmic trading strategies for the US Futures and Options markets. 

My research work is focused on the statistical study of the "persistence of trends" and "mean reversion" effects in global Equities, Futures, Indexes, Bonds and FX Spot markets. I have created an original proprietary process (called the "Market Reversal Matrix" or "MRM") that makes extensive use of probabilistic Bayesian models to predict short-term (1 day to few weeks) trend reversals.

I do not use any AI/machine learning processes in my work: all models and algorithms are built and supervised by humans. This approach is very labour-intensive but produces forecasts that have a clearly understandable/explainable rationale (no black-boxes).

Quantitative Researcher

EQD | HSI Rally: Possible Brief Stop This Week

EQD | The Hang Seng Index's Turning Point

EQD | Hang Seng (HSI): How Far Can It Rally Now?

EQD | Tears and Despair for the Hang Seng Index May Not Be Over (Yet)

2024 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of Japan into Hong Kong - Part 2

EQD | The LONG Case for the Hang Seng Index

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> this week reversed up and close the week up, after 3 weeks down. This may not be the usual opportunity to go SHORT.</li>
<li>The index may rise for another 1 week and then pullback, but our seasonal matrix model says there is a good probability the HSI rallies in February.</li>
<li>Based on this market reading we advise HSI Short Sellers to be particularly careful when setting up SHORT trades between here and the end of February. </li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index this week reversed up and close the week up, after 3 weeks down. This may not be the usual opportunity to go SHORT.
The index may rise for another 1 week and then pullback, but our seasonal matrix model says there is a good probability the HSI rallies in February.
Based on this market reading we advise HSI Short Sellers to be particularly careful when setting up SHORT trades between here and the end of February. 


EQD | HSI Short-Sellers Prepare for a Rally in February