Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Gautam Jain has over 25 years of experience covering global emerging fixed income and currency markets, both as a strategist and a portfolio manager. He has worked in buy-side and sell-side firms, including The Rohatyn Group (TRG Management), Barclays Capital, and Millennium Partners. He has helped manage emerging markets local-currency and hard-currency debt funds. The assets that he covers include currencies, interest rates, sovereign credits, and related derivatives. He specializes in portfolio construction, smart-beta index creation, and asset allocation. Mr. Jain holds a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Columbia University and is a CFA charter holder.

In the Line of Fire – Impact on Central European Currencies from Russia’s Invasion

Contagion Risks from Russia to Other EM Currencies

Risks to Russian Bonds from Escalating Sanctions

The Real Issue For Investors Is Less Russia And More About Skidding Global Liquidity

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>US rates are trapped between inflationary pressures on one hand, and risk aversion and growth uncertainty on the other, with the latter dominating for now.</li>
<li>The previous strong correlation of EM rates with the US has now flipped as they continue to rise even with US rates rallying.</li>
<li>The spread of EM rates to the US is at its widest in a decade but it should remain that way as long as rates volatility remains high.</li>
</ul>


US rates are trapped between inflationary pressures on one hand, and risk aversion and growth uncertainty on the other, with the latter dominating for now.
The previous strong correlation of EM rates with the US has now flipped as they continue to rise even with US rates rallying.
The spread of EM rates to the US is at its widest in a decade but it should remain that way as long as rates volatility remains high.


EM Rates Detach from the US Amid Russian Contagion

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic)

EM Rates Detach from the US Amid Russian Contagion