Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Gautam Jain has over 25 years of experience covering global emerging fixed income and currency markets, both as a strategist and a portfolio manager. He has worked in buy-side and sell-side firms, including The Rohatyn Group (TRG Management), Barclays Capital, and Millennium Partners. He has helped manage emerging markets local-currency and hard-currency debt funds. The assets that he covers include currencies, interest rates, sovereign credits, and related derivatives. He specializes in portfolio construction, smart-beta index creation, and asset allocation. Mr. Jain holds a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Columbia University and is a CFA charter holder.

Alpha Bites: Performance Summary of Trade Recommendations in FX and Rates – March 2022

The Real Issue For Investors Is Less Russia And More About Skidding Global Liquidity

EM Rates Detach from the US Amid Russian Contagion

Risks to Russian Bonds from Escalating Sanctions

Is the Risk Premium High Enough in the Russian Ruble?

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>With Russia invading Ukraine, my view of the dollar remaining strong and possibly appreciating further in the near term is playing out.</li>
<li>EM currencies have weathered the spillover from Russia and dollar strengthening well so far, but this may be about to change as their (negative) beta to the dollar has increased.</li>
<li>Beyond the near term, the outlook for the dollar and EM currencies has become hazy given the uncertainty emanating from Russia's invasion and the fallout of the sanctions.</li>
</ul>


With Russia invading Ukraine, my view of the dollar remaining strong and possibly appreciating further in the near term is playing out.
EM currencies have weathered the spillover from Russia and dollar strengthening well so far, but this may be about to change as their (negative) beta to the dollar has increased.
Beyond the near term, the outlook for the dollar and EM currencies has become hazy given the uncertainty emanating from Russia's invasion and the fallout of the sanctions.


Contagion Risks from Russia to Other EM Currencies

RUB

Contagion Risks from Russia to Other EM Currencies