Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

EA: Inflation Energises Another 50bp Hike

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>EA HICP inflation was unrevised from 8.64% in the final print for Jun-22, and the HICPxT rose to 8.8% y-o-y, in line with our forecast.</li>
<li>The outlook for the next few months still looks relatively flat, albeit at painfully high inflation rates. The current consensus forecast profile is very similar to ours.</li>
<li>Underlying inflation appears to have peaked, with the monthly impulse broadly falling over the past two months. It is still running at about double target-consistent rates.</li>
</ul>


EA HICP inflation was unrevised from 8.64% in the final print for Jun-22, and the HICPxT rose to 8.8% y-o-y, in line with our forecast.
The outlook for the next few months still looks relatively flat, albeit at painfully high inflation rates. The current consensus forecast profile is very similar to ours.
Underlying inflation appears to have peaked, with the monthly impulse broadly falling over the past two months. It is still running at about double target-consistent rates.


EA: Underlying Inflation Falling Past Peak