Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

EA: Underlying Inflation Falling Past Peak

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>EA inflation increased by another 0.2pp to 9.1% in Aug-22, 0.1pp above expectations. The biggest upside was in energy prices, but goods also raised the core to 4.3%.</li>
<li>Increases in the past two months have been less than the previous trend, but it is too early to call a headline turn. We still forecast a Sep-22 rise.</li>
<li>ECB hawks will be dissatisfied with these developments and probably push through another 50bp hike in September, despite the dangers brewing in the periphery.</li>
</ul>


EA inflation increased by another 0.2pp to 9.1% in Aug-22, 0.1pp above expectations. The biggest upside was in energy prices, but goods also raised the core to 4.3%.
Increases in the past two months have been less than the previous trend, but it is too early to call a headline turn. We still forecast a Sep-22 rise.
ECB hawks will be dissatisfied with these developments and probably push through another 50bp hike in September, despite the dangers brewing in the periphery.


EA: Inflation Energises Another 50bp Hike