Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Nigel Chiang

Centennial Asia Advisors deliver timely and accurate economic and political analysis to investors, focused on anticipating key turning points that affect the client’s interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Clients include public agencies and central banks, as well as fund managers and investment banks. The company draws strength from its flexibility to tailor products to fit client’s specific interests. It provides detailed macro-economic forecasts, scenario analysis and timely assessments of how specific major economic and political developments may affect a client’s areas of interest. At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way.

Economist

China: Rising Risks to Growth and Stability

Shortages/ Hostages/ Mothers/ Weapons/ Papers

China: Calling the Bottom in Activity Growth

China: What Do the Latest Policy Signals Mean for the Economy?

China: Xi Seeks to Remake the Economy and Society

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

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<li>Lacklustre growth in industrial production, fixed-asset investment, and retail sales in August have led us to downgrade our expectation for 3rd quarter GDP growth to 3.6%</li>
<li>More important from a conjunctural perspective, however, are the sequential growth rates, which give a better sense of the momentum of the economy. In this regard, FAI and IP expanded at the same sequential rate in August as they did last month, at 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, while retail sales ticked up 0.2% m/m sa in August, up from a 0.1% decline in July, affirming our call that activity likely bottomed in August-early September.</li>
<li>Thus, looking ahead, we remain confident that external demand, reviving infrastructure spending, and reduced pandemic restrictions allowing domestic activity to revive will boost GDP growth to 4.7% in 4Q21, bringing full-year GDP growth to 8%, a modest downgrade from our previous forecast of 8.2% - but one that spells out a soft landing for the Chinese economy.</li>
</ul>


Lacklustre growth in industrial production, fixed-asset investment, and retail sales in August have led us to downgrade our expectation for 3rd quarter GDP growth to 3.6%
More important from a conjunctural perspective, however, are the sequential growth rates, which give a better sense of the momentum of the economy. In this regard, FAI and IP expanded at the same sequential rate in August as they did last month, at 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, while retail sales ticked up 0.2% m/m sa in August, up from a 0.1% decline in July, affirming our call that activity likely bottomed in August-early September.
Thus, looking ahead, we remain confident that external demand, reviving infrastructure spending, and reduced pandemic restrictions allowing domestic activity to revive will boost GDP growth to 4.7% in 4Q21, bringing full-year GDP growth to 8%, a modest downgrade from our previous forecast of 8.2% - but one that spells out a soft landing for the Chinese economy.


China: Soft Landing Despite Intensified Headwinds