Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Nigel Chiang

Centennial Asia Advisors deliver timely and accurate economic and political analysis to investors, focused on anticipating key turning points that affect the client’s interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Clients include public agencies and central banks, as well as fund managers and investment banks. The company draws strength from its flexibility to tailor products to fit client’s specific interests. It provides detailed macro-economic forecasts, scenario analysis and timely assessments of how specific major economic and political developments may affect a client’s areas of interest. At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way.

Economist

Revolution/ Assimilation/ Education/ Confrontation/ Rectification

China: Weaker Activity Data Will Compel More Policy Support Soon

Prosperity/ Economy/ Probity/ Equity/ Property

China: Aggressive Stimulus Still Unlikely; Are There Silver Linings in the Regulatory Blitz?

China: Xi Seeks to Remake the Economy and Society

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

Two policy developments in China are noteworthy.First, the regulatory crackdowns have continued, even extending to online fan clubs. Private businesses will become warier of state intervention as a result and may hold back on investment.Second, a modest loosening of monetary policy is likely - this will offset potentially weaker private investment as a result of the unprecedented regulatory crackdown.<ul>
<li>The newfound emphasis on macro policy being ahead of the curve suggests that the authorities would seek to ramp up domestic demand to lean against a weakening export impulse into 2022.</li>
<li>The central bank’s intended financial support for rural development also signals a more proactive role for policy in the long-term plans promulgated by the political leadership. In this case, the focus on rural development is a key plank of Xi’s objective of achieving “common prosperity”.</li>
</ul>Relatedly, there has been some concern that the very tight policy stance on the property sector would tip the Chinese economy into a deeper slowdown. We believe that the Chinese policymakers are sincere in their wish to rein in the housing sector for many reasons. For one, the political leadership views high housing prices as a major obstacle in way of achieving “common prosperity”. However, the centrality of housing to the economy also implies that policymakers are watching trends in the real sector very carefully – if there is a downside surprise, it could very well emerge elsewhere, some areas which they are not monitoring as closely.

Two policy developments in China are noteworthy.First, the regulatory crackdowns have continued, even extending to online fan clubs. Private businesses will become warier of state intervention as a result and may hold back on investment.Second, a modest loosening of monetary policy is likely - this will offset potentially weaker private investment as a result of the unprecedented regulatory crackdown.
The newfound emphasis on macro policy being ahead of the curve suggests that the authorities would seek to ramp up domestic demand to lean against a weakening export impulse into 2022.
The central bank’s intended financial support for rural development also signals a more proactive role for policy in the long-term plans promulgated by the political leadership. In this case, the focus on rural development is a key plank of Xi’s objective of achieving “common prosperity”.
Relatedly, there has been some concern that the very tight policy stance on the property sector would tip the Chinese economy into a deeper slowdown. We believe that the Chinese policymakers are sincere in their wish to rein in the housing sector for many reasons. For one, the political leadership views high housing prices as a major obstacle in way of achieving “common prosperity”. However, the centrality of housing to the economy also implies that policymakers are watching trends in the real sector very carefully – if there is a downside surprise, it could very well emerge elsewhere, some areas which they are not monitoring as closely.

China: What Do the Latest Policy Signals Mean for the Economy?