Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Jim Walker is the chief economist at Aletheia Analyst Network Limited, an independent research platform for the Asia Pacific region. Prior to joining Aletheia he was the founder and chief economist at Asianomics Group an economics and strategy research consultancy company formed in late 2007. 

Before establishing Asianomics he was the chief economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. He joined CLSA in late 1991. Over the years Dr Jim achieved numerous ‘best economist’ rankings in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investor and Greenwich surveys of fund managers. In 1995 he wrote about the prospect of Asia being forced off its de facto dollar peg “within the next two-three years”. The Asian Crisis, precipitated by the Thai baht devaluation, began in July 1997.

In recent years he is best known for forecasting the US 2007 downturn and financial sector meltdown in his series of ‘Apocalypse’ reports. He remains deeply sceptical of the prevailing wisdom in central banks’ approach to monetary policy.

Over the years he has also developed an approach to analysing Asian economies based on profit and credit cycles where the importance of investment spending as the driver of economic activity is explained.

Early in his career he worked in his native Scotland as a research fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute for Research on the Scottish Economy, and then at The Royal Bank of Scotland’s Edinburgh headquarters. He holds a Bachelor of Arts Honours degree and a doctorate in economics from the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

Chief Economist

Asian Credit Monitor: 2018 Portfolio Strategy, US Rate Trajectory, China Credit Gap

The Jinping and Marshall Plans – Birds of a Feather?

A Tale of Two Bubbles: US 2007 Vs China 2017

China Politics: The Biggest Crisis Since Tiananmen

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<p>If you try hard enough, dig deep enough and double-count as much as you can you will be able to reach any extreme you want if you are a China debt bear. We are under no illusions about the extents some businesses will go to to hide true borrowing levels and just how difficult it has been for the authorities to monitor the shadow banking system.</p><p>Debt is likely understated. But so is GDP. What is not understated in China is money supply - essentially the accumulated savings of Chinese households and corporates. Instead of looking at debt to GDP mightn't it be more realistic to look at debt to M2 (savings)? Because then China doesn't look that scary at all.</p>

If you try hard enough, dig deep enough and double-count as much as you can you will be able to reach any extreme you want if you are a China debt bear. We are under no illusions about the extents some businesses will go to to hide true borrowing levels and just how difficult it has been for the authorities to monitor the shadow banking system.Debt is likely understated. But so is GDP. What is not understated in China is money supply - essentially the accumulated savings of Chinese households and corporates. Instead of looking at debt to GDP mightn't it be more realistic to look at debt to M2 (savings)? Because then China doesn't look that scary at all.

China's Debt Analysis – Making Sense of Nonsense