Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Jim Walker is the chief economist at Aletheia Analyst Network Limited, an independent research platform for the Asia Pacific region. Prior to joining Aletheia he was the founder and chief economist at Asianomics Group an economics and strategy research consultancy company formed in late 2007. 

Before establishing Asianomics he was the chief economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. He joined CLSA in late 1991. Over the years Dr Jim achieved numerous ‘best economist’ rankings in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investor and Greenwich surveys of fund managers. In 1995 he wrote about the prospect of Asia being forced off its de facto dollar peg “within the next two-three years”. The Asian Crisis, precipitated by the Thai baht devaluation, began in July 1997.

In recent years he is best known for forecasting the US 2007 downturn and financial sector meltdown in his series of ‘Apocalypse’ reports. He remains deeply sceptical of the prevailing wisdom in central banks’ approach to monetary policy.

Over the years he has also developed an approach to analysing Asian economies based on profit and credit cycles where the importance of investment spending as the driver of economic activity is explained.

Early in his career he worked in his native Scotland as a research fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute for Research on the Scottish Economy, and then at The Royal Bank of Scotland’s Edinburgh headquarters. He holds a Bachelor of Arts Honours degree and a doctorate in economics from the University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

Chief Economist

The Week That Was in Greater China @Smartkarma: ASE+SPIL, New FinTech Regulation, RYB Abuse Scandal

China's Debt Analysis – Making Sense of Nonsense

China Politics: The Biggest Crisis Since Tiananmen

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)

<p>When will US investors get tired of comparing China in 2017 with the United States financial system in 2007, the year the Global Financial Crisis started? Some of these investors say that the Chinese financial system today is in even worse shape than the US was then (although that is hard to believe even under the worst of circumstances). They are all positioned for the Chinese financial meltdown and the currency collapse that they expect to accompany it. We suspect, were they old enough, that they would have made exactly the same arguments about Japan in 1990. As we all now know, the yen then went on a 20-year journey to nowhere and the much-derided JGB market just kept grinding higher.</p><p>Are Chinese financials (and the renminbi) today the investment graveyard that was JGBs in the 1990s? Quite possibly for the bears. We have looked at the conditions which combine to produce financial crises and find that there are few similarities between USA 2007 and China 2017. Moreover, the economic cycle in China is in the wrong phase to cause a financial sector meltdown. That was much more likely in 2014 and 2015, when the economy was in near recession, than it is today. </p>

When will US investors get tired of comparing China in 2017 with the United States financial system in 2007, the year the Global Financial Crisis started? Some of these investors say that the Chinese financial system today is in even worse shape than the US was then (although that is hard to believe even under the worst of circumstances). They are all positioned for the Chinese financial meltdown and the currency collapse that they expect to accompany it. We suspect, were they old enough, that they would have made exactly the same arguments about Japan in 1990. As we all now know, the yen then went on a 20-year journey to nowhere and the much-derided JGB market just kept grinding higher.Are Chinese financials (and the renminbi) today the investment graveyard that was JGBs in the 1990s? Quite possibly for the bears. We have looked at the conditions which combine to produce financial crises and find that there are few similarities between USA 2007 and China 2017. Moreover, the economic cycle in China is in the wrong phase to cause a financial sector meltdown. That was much more likely in 2014 and 2015, when the economy was in near recession, than it is today. 

A Tale of Two Bubbles: US 2007 Vs China 2017