Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.

Asia Economist and CEO

Edtech/ Evergrande/ US-China/ Taiwan/ Tibet

Rule of Law/ Rule by Law/ Evergrande/ Olympics/ Karaoke

China: Aggressive Stimulus Still Unlikely; Are There Silver Linings in the Regulatory Blitz?

China: Regulatory Blitz on Tech a Negative for the Private Sector

Our China Views in a Nutshell: Near-Term Bullish; Longer-Term Cautious

China: Headwinds from Policy Normalisation Will Be Manageable

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

The recent regulatory blitz on China's technology/internet companies and now the edutech sector has significantly unnerved financial markets. The key takeaway from a macro standpoint is that the balance between the state and private enterprise has shifted even more in favour of the state, continuing a trend that had begun earlier. Private enterprises in China must now recognise that the Chinese state’s strategic priorities will take precedence over corporate interests to a greater extent than in the past. The blunt assertion of the state’s interests over private enterprise in China will raise the risk premium of investing in Chinese assets.The crackdown on the online education sector indicates that the Chinese leadership sees the demographic trends as a serious threat to their ambitions for the nation: it is almost certain that they will reinforce these measures with more radical moves on the provision of childcare/infant care as well as parental leave and subsidies for child-raising.There is also the view that the housing sector will be next in line for regulation. Our prior is that regulatory action on this front will be somewhat more calibrated, given the housing market's centrality to the economy, and the relatively high level of financial vulnerabilities that have built up over time in certain pockets of the property sector.We expect more forceful action in areas where regulators have been behind the curve, for instance in China's financial markets where a number of financial and accounting scandals have hurt the credibility of its capital markets. To this end, the ongoing regulatory blitz could result in some positive changes to the structure of China's economy over the long term.Given this fundamental change, the business sector in China – especially domestic private firms – will rethink its strategy in various ways. The less high-profile wealthy could move more capital abroad. Hong Kong businesses would accelerate the diversification and restructuring of their businesses.

The recent regulatory blitz on China's technology/internet companies and now the edutech sector has significantly unnerved financial markets. The key takeaway from a macro standpoint is that the balance between the state and private enterprise has shifted even more in favour of the state, continuing a trend that had begun earlier. Private enterprises in China must now recognise that the Chinese state’s strategic priorities will take precedence over corporate interests to a greater extent than in the past. The blunt assertion of the state’s interests over private enterprise in China will raise the risk premium of investing in Chinese assets.The crackdown on the online education sector indicates that the Chinese leadership sees the demographic trends as a serious threat to their ambitions for the nation: it is almost certain that they will reinforce these measures with more radical moves on the provision of childcare/infant care as well as parental leave and subsidies for child-raising.There is also the view that the housing sector will be next in line for regulation. Our prior is that regulatory action on this front will be somewhat more calibrated, given the housing market's centrality to the economy, and the relatively high level of financial vulnerabilities that have built up over time in certain pockets of the property sector.We expect more forceful action in areas where regulators have been behind the curve, for instance in China's financial markets where a number of financial and accounting scandals have hurt the credibility of its capital markets. To this end, the ongoing regulatory blitz could result in some positive changes to the structure of China's economy over the long term.Given this fundamental change, the business sector in China – especially domestic private firms – will rethink its strategy in various ways. The less high-profile wealthy could move more capital abroad. Hong Kong businesses would accelerate the diversification and restructuring of their businesses.

China: Policy Moves Show Who's Boss