Founder & Head of Research, Fortress Hill Advisors

Alex Ng

Alex Ng is the founder and head of research of the economic and investment research house Fortress Hill Advisors. Prior to founding Fortress Hill Advisors, he worked as an economic research analyst across government, academic, and financial institutes including the Hong Kong Financial Secretary’s Office (Office of the Government Economist), Economic Research Center of the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies at CUHK, and State Street Global Markets. Alex holds a Master of Arts in Economics degree from Columbia University in the City of New York and a Bachelor of Arts in Economics and Mathematics from Wesleyan University (CT, USA).

Our firm's expertise lies in macroeconomics, global macro,  global thematic research, company and equity research, multi-asset strategy, event driven, and ESG.

We also do proprietary trading on the firm's capital, to try to vindicate our investment thesis. Our flagship publication, Heard from Fortress Hill (HFFH) provides our weekly market observations and is freely available on our website: https://fortresshill-advisors.com/hffh/

Founder & Head of Research

China's Serial Rate Cuts: What are Them and are They Effective in Reviving the Falling Economy

Outlook Overview: How Far Are the Rate Cuts?

Fortress Hill Advisors

Founded in Hong Kong in 2019, Fortress Hill Advisor seeks to provide premium economic and financial researches.

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Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Growth is benefitting from momentum in public investment/exports and high tech production. However, domestic demand is slower and this is a drag on H2 2024 and 2025 growth prospects. </li>
<li>Aside from the negative drag from the residential construction crisis, consumption is softer.  There is uncertainty about employment and wage growth, adverse wealth effects, and less pent-up demand post COVID.</li>
<li>We forecast 4.6% 2024 GDP growth and 4.0% 2025, though we have cut the 2025 inflation forecast from +0.9% to +0.6%.  The excess of production over domestic demand causes disinflation.</li>
</ul>


Growth is benefitting from momentum in public investment/exports and high tech production. However, domestic demand is slower and this is a drag on H2 2024 and 2025 growth prospects. 
Aside from the negative drag from the residential construction crisis, consumption is softer.  There is uncertainty about employment and wage growth, adverse wealth effects, and less pent-up demand post COVID.
We forecast 4.6% 2024 GDP growth and 4.0% 2025, though we have cut the 2025 inflation forecast from +0.9% to +0.6%.  The excess of production over domestic demand causes disinflation.


China Outlook: Unbalanced and Slowing Growth