Founder & Head of Research, Fortress Hill Advisors

Alex Ng

Alex Ng is the founder and head of research of the economic and investment research house Fortress Hill Advisors. Prior to founding Fortress Hill Advisors, he worked as an economic research analyst across government, academic, and financial institutes including the Hong Kong Financial Secretary’s Office (Office of the Government Economist), Economic Research Center of the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies at CUHK, and State Street Global Markets. Alex holds a Master of Arts in Economics degree from Columbia University in the City of New York and a Bachelor of Arts in Economics and Mathematics from Wesleyan University (CT, USA).

Our firm's expertise lies in macroeconomics, global macro,  global thematic research, company and equity research, multi-asset strategy, event driven, and ESG.

We also do proprietary trading on the firm's capital, to try to vindicate our investment thesis. Our flagship publication, Heard from Fortress Hill (HFFH) provides our weekly market observations and is freely available on our website: https://fortresshill-advisors.com/hffh/

Founder & Head of Research

China Outlook: Unbalanced and Slowing Growth

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Fortress Hill Advisors

Founded in Hong Kong in 2019, Fortress Hill Advisor seeks to provide premium economic and financial researches.

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Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>We see a 30% probability of a harder landing in China GDP growth in 2025, which we most likely be in the 3-4% region but could persist into 2026.  </li>
<li>A large than projected slowdown in consumption would be a key concern, alongside persistently moderate negative deductions from residential investment. </li>
<li>Negative inflation would only worsen this situation, while China authorities appear reluctant to go beyond targeted extra policy support towards aggressive action.</li>
</ul>


We see a 30% probability of a harder landing in China GDP growth in 2025, which we most likely be in the 3-4% region but could persist into 2026.  
A large than projected slowdown in consumption would be a key concern, alongside persistently moderate negative deductions from residential investment. 
Negative inflation would only worsen this situation, while China authorities appear reluctant to go beyond targeted extra policy support towards aggressive action.


China Hard Landing Scenario