HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Over 15 years' experience in both finance and healthcare, covering clinic operations, investment and equity research in both China and overseas.

CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) - 2024 Is the Best Time to Bottom-Fish This Stock

Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/​​HCM.US) 24H1 - Fruquintinib's US Sales Beat; Break-Even Is Within Reach

CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) 23Q3 - Some Positive Business Progress Worth the Attention

Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/​​HCM.US) - Time to Reassess Valuation Prospects Despite the Pain Points

WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH) - The Pain of 2024 Has Just Begun

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We summarized the varieties that would miss 2024 NRDL negotiation and have to wait until 2026 to enter medical insurance coverage. This however means competing products would have more advantages.</li>
<li>As the NRDL negotiation becomes more transparent/reasonable, there will be a balance point among companies’ profits, patient affordability and medical insurance budget. So, there's no need to be overly pessimistic.</li>
<li>The approval process of CanSino’s PCV13i could be faster than expected. 2024 is the best time to bottom-fish this stock. Reasonable market value is at least RMB5 billion.</li>
</ul>


We summarized the varieties that would miss 2024 NRDL negotiation and have to wait until 2026 to enter medical insurance coverage. This however means competing products would have more advantages.
As the NRDL negotiation becomes more transparent/reasonable, there will be a balance point among companies’ profits, patient affordability and medical insurance budget. So, there's no need to be overly pessimistic.
The approval process of CanSino’s PCV13i could be faster than expected. 2024 is the best time to bottom-fish this stock. Reasonable market value is at least RMB5 billion.


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.11) - 2024 NRDL Negotiation, China Biotech Outlook, Bottom Fish CanSino