Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist and Asia sector strategist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

China: Capital Flight Limits Easier Money Amid Spreading Crisis in Property Markets

China's Twin Crises: Overlending to Frontier Markets & Domestic Property Sector

China's Slow-Burning Financial Crisis Worsens Amid Persistent Overcapacity

China Faces the Perfect Storm: Global Tightening, Capital Flight, Overcapacity

Covid Stalls the TSF-Fuelled Cyclical Rebound in the Political-Transition Year

China's Monetary Easing Will Do Little to Counter a Structural Slowdown

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>A RMB7.96tn (US$1.2tn) increase in TSF in May-Jun'22 (US$3.1tn in H1CY22) boosted FAI and industrial growth in Jun'22, helping avert a Q2 GDP contraction. Full-year RGDP growth won't exceed 4%. </li>
<li>Exports accelerated but imports were near-stagnant, contributing to a trade surplus of US$391bn in H1CY22-- but FX reserves still declined US$179bn. Easing options are limited by fear of capital flight.</li>
<li>Falling home sales, weaker property values and tighter global liquidity will spread the current financial crisis to more provinces. With monetary easing constrained, China's financial system crisis will deepen. </li>
</ul>


A RMB7.96tn (US$1.2tn) increase in TSF in May-Jun'22 (US$3.1tn in H1CY22) boosted FAI and industrial growth in Jun'22, helping avert a Q2 GDP contraction. Full-year RGDP growth won't exceed 4%. 
Exports accelerated but imports were near-stagnant, contributing to a trade surplus of US$391bn in H1CY22-- but FX reserves still declined US$179bn. Easing options are limited by fear of capital flight.
Falling home sales, weaker property values and tighter global liquidity will spread the current financial crisis to more provinces. With monetary easing constrained, China's financial system crisis will deepen. 


China: Financial Crisis Looms as Tighter Global Liquidity Limits Easing Options