Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Capital market veteran with 22 years experience with stints as an analyst (sell-side & buyside), investor relations and fund manager. 

My key expertise in the aviation sector. My definition of "aviation" includes airlines, travel tours, airports, airport retail & services, OEMs, online travel agents, aircraft lessors, air cargo/logistics, etc.   

I have an active watchlist consisting 190 companies across 41 countries. The aviation sector is highly cyclical and I am constantly evaluating signals to uncover attractive trade opportunities.

There's Something About Air Cargo (Part II)

Crisis in the Red Sea, if This Persists, We May Need to Rethink About Victory over Inflation

Singapore Airlines: Supply Dislocations Will Underpin Strong Profits for Much Longer

Chinese Airports at Inflection Point, Low Risk and High Visibility Growth Sector

China Tourism Sector: Anticipating More Upward Strengths

Chinese Airlines: Well Placed for a Reversal

Equity Bottom-Up

Cathay Pacific Airways / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>All positives from management: strong demand, loads and yields strong, cargo improving, costs are high but can cope, big profits coming but have to redeem preference shares  </li>
<li>The near-term future is a golden runaway for Cathay Pacific. All the parameters are in the right place and we think this will persist until 1H-2024 at the very least </li>
<li>Cathay Pacific is a value <strong>BUY</strong>, our target price of HK$9.90 (+21% UPSIDE) implies 10x FY2024 PE, parity multiple against its arch-rival <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-airlines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:74:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Airlines (SIA SP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


All positives from management: strong demand, loads and yields strong, cargo improving, costs are high but can cope, big profits coming but have to redeem preference shares  
The near-term future is a golden runaway for Cathay Pacific. All the parameters are in the right place and we think this will persist until 1H-2024 at the very least 
Cathay Pacific is a value BUY, our target price of HK$9.90 (+21% UPSIDE) implies 10x FY2024 PE, parity multiple against its arch-rival Singapore Airlines (SIA SP). 


Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP HK$9.90): Inputs from Analyst Briefing