Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Capital market veteran with 22 years experience with stints as an analyst (sell-side & buyside), investor relations and fund manager. 

My key expertise in the aviation sector. My definition of "aviation" includes airlines, travel tours, airports, airport retail & services, OEMs, online travel agents, aircraft lessors, air cargo/logistics, etc.   

I have an active watchlist consisting 190 companies across 41 countries. The aviation sector is highly cyclical and I am constantly evaluating signals to uncover attractive trade opportunities.

Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP HK$9.90): Inputs from Analyst Briefing

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Alfamart's Expansion, Erajaya, and Anwar's Malaysia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Dearth of international flights from Chinese and Russian carriers -- 2nd &amp; 3rd biggest global aviation market, will distort supply, underpins strong yields and profitability.  </li>
<li>SIA's cost management is superior thanks to high asset utilisation, stable SGD vs. the USD, and access to attractive financing.  SIA's competitors severely lack these attributes. </li>
<li>We forecast FY24 net profit of SGD2.4b (+13.1% YoY) and peg it to 10x PE to derive a TP of SGD8.07, +30% UPSIDE potential.  </li>
</ul>


Dearth of international flights from Chinese and Russian carriers -- 2nd &amp; 3rd biggest global aviation market, will distort supply, underpins strong yields and profitability.  
SIA's cost management is superior thanks to high asset utilisation, stable SGD vs. the USD, and access to attractive financing.  SIA's competitors severely lack these attributes. 
We forecast FY24 net profit of SGD2.4b (+13.1% YoY) and peg it to 10x PE to derive a TP of SGD8.07, +30% UPSIDE potential.  


Singapore Airlines: Supply Dislocations Will Underpin Strong Profits for Much Longer