Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. 

I'm a highly experienced sell-side analyst with in excess of 22 years of covering Asia Pacific equities, the past 19 years immersed in event strategies encompassing M&A risk arbitrage, directional long/short, stub trades and restructuring.  

My background also includes accountancy (liquidation/bankruptcy/receivership) earlier in my career and as a chief financial officer of a global commodity company based in the US and Mexico.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Cardinal Resources: Shandong's Indicative Bump

Cardinal Resources (CDV AU). Exit Nord Gold, Enter Dongshan.

Cardinal Resources (CDV AU): Nordgold's Knockout Offer

Cardinal Resources (CDV AU): Shandong Trumps Nordgold’s Knockout Offer

Cardinal Resources: Nordgold's "Competing Offer"

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

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<p>On the 21 October, Nordgold increased its Offer price to <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02296571-6A1002232?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A$1.00/share</a>, matching <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-61153493-5437-47ee-a8d3-aec41fb7f1da" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (1787 HK)</a>'s $1.00/share bid on the 7 September. But matters shortly turned sour: did Nordgold's improved Offer constitute a higher competing offer? Shandong says <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02297278-6A1002505?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">yes</a>. Nordgold says no. </p>
<p>The crux of the issues centred on Shandong's Second Supplementary Bidder's Statement on the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02295721-6A1001904?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">19 October</a>, in which Shandong stated that its $1.00/share offer price is "<em>best and final in the absence of a higher competing offer</em>." </p>
<p>Cardinal added on the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02296161-6A1002062?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">20 October</a> that "<em>unless there is a higher competing offer to the Shandong Gold Offer (whether from Nordgold or a third party), Shandong Gold cannot increase its offer price</em>". </p>
<p>After Nordgold's matching bid, Cardinal <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02296759-6A1002302?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that "<em>Nordgold has made a higher competing offer by increasing the Offer Price of the Nordgold Takeover Bid to A$1.00 cash per share (previously A$0.90 can per share)"</em>. </p>
<p>In its submission to the Takeovers Panel (TP) on the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02297975_PS-6A1002769?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">23 October</a>, Nordgold considered Cardinal's statement to be misleading and/or deceptive, and sought a correction. </p>
<p>A number of takeover applications ensued, so much so, Cardinal resorted to an <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02304400-6A1005622?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> on the 4 November summarising these applications. There was no definitive conclusion at this juncture. And so it has dragged on, with at least another four TP updates from the summary announcement. </p>
<h3>The New News</h3>
<p>This morning Ghanaian firm Engineers &amp; Planners Company formally <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02312766-6A1008633?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">launched</a> a A$1.05/share all-cash offer.</p>
<p>At 4.24pm, Nordgold released a <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02313088-6A1008768?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">statement</a> that E&amp;P's Offer is not an "offer" nor a "competing offer", therefore it does not free either Nordgold or Shandong from their Best and Final Statements. </p>
<p>Unfazed, Shandong <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02312766-6A1008633?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bumped</a> its Offer to A$1.05/share 43 minutes later.</p>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
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<p>Past insights on Cardinal:</p>
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<td style="width: 218.75px;">22-Jun-20</td>
<td style="width: 484.782px;"><a href="https://skr.ma/sVxVB" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Shandong's Competing Offer For Cardinal</a></td>
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<td style="width: 218.75px;">15-Jul-20</td>
<td style="width: 484.782px;"><a href="https://skr.ma/E1Wgv" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cardinal Resource (CDV AU): Nordgold Reloads</a></td>
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<td style="width: 218.75px;">23-Jul-20</td>
<td style="width: 484.782px;"><a href="https://skr.ma/tVkqj" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cardinal Resource (CDV AU): Shandong Reloads, But Not A Knockout Offer</a></td>
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<td style="width: 218.75px;">2-Sep-20</td>
<td style="width: 484.782px;"><a href="https://skr.ma/eGXfx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cardinal Resources (CDV AU): Nordgold's Knockout Offer. Read more:</a></td>
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<td style="width: 218.75px;">7-Sep-20</td>
<td style="width: 484.782px;"><a href="https://skr.ma/4gYtj" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cardinal Resources (CDV AU): Shandong Trumps Nordgold’s Knockout Offer</a></td>
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<td style="width: 218.75px;">22-Oct-20</td>
<td style="width: 484.782px;"><a href="https://skr.ma/3cYHs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cardinal Resources: Nordgold's "Competing Offer"</a></td>
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On the 21 October, Nordgold increased its Offer price to A$1.00/share, matching Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (1787 HK)'s $1.00/share bid on the 7 September. But matters shortly turned sour: did Nordgold's improved Offer constitute a higher competing offer? Shandong says yes. Nordgold says no. 
The crux of the issues centred on Shandong's Second Supplementary Bidder's Statement on the 19 October, in which Shandong stated that its $1.00/share offer price is "best and final in the absence of a higher competing offer." 
Cardinal added on the 20 October that "unless there is a higher competing offer to the Shandong Gold Offer (whether from Nordgold or a third party), Shandong Gold cannot increase its offer price". 
After Nordgold's matching bid, Cardinal announced that "Nordgold has made a higher competing offer by increasing the Offer Price of the Nordgold Takeover Bid to A$1.00 cash per share (previously A$0.90 can per share)". 
In its submission to the Takeovers Panel (TP) on the 23 October, Nordgold considered Cardinal's statement to be misleading and/or deceptive, and sought a correction. 
A number of takeover applications ensued, so much so, Cardinal resorted to an announcement on the 4 November summarising these applications. There was no definitive conclusion at this juncture. And so it has dragged on, with at least another four TP updates from the summary announcement. 
The New News
This morning Ghanaian firm Engineers &amp; Planners Company formally launched a A$1.05/share all-cash offer.
At 4.24pm, Nordgold released a statement that E&amp;P's Offer is not an "offer" nor a "competing offer", therefore it does not free either Nordgold or Shandong from their Best and Final Statements. 
Unfazed, Shandong bumped its Offer to A$1.05/share 43 minutes later.
More below the fold.





Past insights on Cardinal:








Date


Insight



22-Jun-20
Shandong's Competing Offer For Cardinal


15-Jul-20
Cardinal Resource (CDV AU): Nordgold Reloads


23-Jul-20
Cardinal Resource (CDV AU): Shandong Reloads, But Not A Knockout Offer


2-Sep-20
Cardinal Resources (CDV AU): Nordgold's Knockout Offer. Read more:


7-Sep-20
Cardinal Resources (CDV AU): Shandong Trumps Nordgold’s Knockout Offer


22-Oct-20
Cardinal Resources: Nordgold's "Competing Offer"









































Cardinal Resources

Cardinal Resources: Three's A Crowd