Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. 

I'm a highly experienced sell-side analyst with in excess of 22 years of covering Asia Pacific equities, the past 19 years immersed in event strategies encompassing M&A risk arbitrage, directional long/short, stub trades and restructuring.  

My background also includes accountancy (liquidation/bankruptcy/receivership) earlier in my career and as a chief financial officer of a global commodity company based in the US and Mexico.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Cardinal Resources (CDV AU): Shandong Trumps Nordgold’s Knockout Offer

Cardinal Resources: Nordgold's "Competing Offer"

Cardinal Resource (CDV AU): Shandong Reloads, But Not A Knockout Offer

Cardinal Resource (CDV AU): Nordgold Reloads

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<div>
<p>Don't always believe what you hear (&amp; read).</p>
<p>Many in the market felt the agreement and placement of shares with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-61153493-5437-47ee-a8d3-aec41fb7f1da" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (1787 HK)</a> in early July could be construed that Nordgold was not interested in lifting its then Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cardinal-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12256:1" rel="noopener">Cardinal Resources (CDV AU)</a> of A$0.45775/share. Nordgold subsequently bumped its Offer to A$0.66, then Shandong came over the top with A$0.70/share.</p>
<p>That was how things stood until last week when media articles appeared saying Nordgold was still keen, but A$0.70/share - where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-61153493-5437-47ee-a8d3-aec41fb7f1da" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (1787 HK)</a> has tabled a revised Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cardinal-resources-ltd-9e1d58d4-8d9b-48dd-a059-3f04f896e3ee" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28182:1" rel="noopener">Cardinal Resources Ltd (CDV CN)</a>  - would be challenging to justify for IRR reasons.</p>
<p>I chose to ignore the news. Archie Koimtsidis, Cardinal's CEO, is quite the negotiator and I thought there was still considerable upside compared to Shandong's revised Offer.</p>
<hr>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<h2>The New News</h2>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p>Nordgold has <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200902/pdf/44m7p0lx0p11z0.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bumped</a> its Offer by 36.4% to A$0.90/share from A$0.66/share. This is an unconditional on-market takeover Offer.</p>
<p>Its Offer will remain open to acceptance until the close of trading on the 10 September - unless extended.</p>
<p>That's a full Offer. If you were already in - then now's the time to cash out. If you are just coming to this, one could probably find an excuse to buy a spread or two above Nordgold's terms on the expectation Shandong comes in over the top, and Nordgold hasn't declared it "final" but that's still a pretty full offer. That said, the price of gold remains high. </p>
<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Past insights on Cardinal</em></p>
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 218.75px;">
<h3>Date</h3>
</td>
<td style="width: 484.782px;">
<h3>Insight</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 218.75px;">22-Jun-20</td>
<td style="width: 484.782px;"><a href="https://skr.ma/sVxVB" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Shandong's Competing Offer For Cardinal</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 218.75px;">15-Jul-20</td>
<td style="width: 484.782px;"><a href="https://skr.ma/E1Wgv" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cardinal Resource (CDV AU): Nordgold Reloads</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 218.75px;">23-Jul-20</td>
<td style="width: 484.782px;"><a href="https://skr.ma/tVkqj" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cardinal Resource (CDV AU): Shandong Reloads, But Not A Knockout Offer</a></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>


Don't always believe what you hear (&amp; read).
Many in the market felt the agreement and placement of shares with Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (1787 HK) in early July could be construed that Nordgold was not interested in lifting its then Offer for Cardinal Resources (CDV AU) of A$0.45775/share. Nordgold subsequently bumped its Offer to A$0.66, then Shandong came over the top with A$0.70/share.
That was how things stood until last week when media articles appeared saying Nordgold was still keen, but A$0.70/share - where Shandong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (1787 HK) has tabled a revised Offer for Cardinal Resources Ltd (CDV CN)  - would be challenging to justify for IRR reasons.
I chose to ignore the news. Archie Koimtsidis, Cardinal's CEO, is quite the negotiator and I thought there was still considerable upside compared to Shandong's revised Offer.




The New News



Nordgold has bumped its Offer by 36.4% to A$0.90/share from A$0.66/share. This is an unconditional on-market takeover Offer.
Its Offer will remain open to acceptance until the close of trading on the 10 September - unless extended.
That's a full Offer. If you were already in - then now's the time to cash out. If you are just coming to this, one could probably find an excuse to buy a spread or two above Nordgold's terms on the expectation Shandong comes in over the top, and Nordgold hasn't declared it "final" but that's still a pretty full offer. That said, the price of gold remains high. 
As always, more below the fold.

Past insights on Cardinal




Date


Insight



22-Jun-20
Shandong's Competing Offer For Cardinal


15-Jul-20
Cardinal Resource (CDV AU): Nordgold Reloads


23-Jul-20
Cardinal Resource (CDV AU): Shandong Reloads, But Not A Knockout Offer





Cardinal Resources (CDV AU): Nordgold's Knockout Offer