Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Base Inc: Shoppers Return to Offline, More Downside Left

Base Inc Bubble Is Still Far From Bursting

Base Inc: Splits Shares & Institutional Investors Are Taking Profits Amidst Slowing Growth

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a>, Japan’s equivalent of Shopify has found revenue growth hard to come by, ever since recording 177% YoY and 127% QoQ growth in 2Q20 amidst an accelerated shift to e-commerce during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, the company’s share price has plunged around 68% from the peak to currently trade at around ¥1,032.0 per share.Driven by a 101% YoY and 43% QoQ increase in promotional spending, Base Inc’s revenue has shown some promise with 9.3% QoQ revenue growth in 2Q21 but the revenue remained 4.3% below the 2Q20 peak level.Nevertheless, we think “BASE” is running out of room to grow in the domestic market, while “PAY” (the main growth driver of Base Inc over the last four quarters), whose revenue grew 70.4% YoY and 23.4% QoQ in 2Q21, is expected to decelerate rapidly following a period of GMV expansion through the recovery of business operations of its merchants after the gradual easing of COVID-19 restrictions.

BASE Inc (4477 JP), Japan’s equivalent of Shopify has found revenue growth hard to come by, ever since recording 177% YoY and 127% QoQ growth in 2Q20 amidst an accelerated shift to e-commerce during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, the company’s share price has plunged around 68% from the peak to currently trade at around ¥1,032.0 per share.Driven by a 101% YoY and 43% QoQ increase in promotional spending, Base Inc’s revenue has shown some promise with 9.3% QoQ revenue growth in 2Q21 but the revenue remained 4.3% below the 2Q20 peak level.Nevertheless, we think “BASE” is running out of room to grow in the domestic market, while “PAY” (the main growth driver of Base Inc over the last four quarters), whose revenue grew 70.4% YoY and 23.4% QoQ in 2Q21, is expected to decelerate rapidly following a period of GMV expansion through the recovery of business operations of its merchants after the gradual easing of COVID-19 restrictions.

Base Inc: The Long Tail May Not Be That Long