Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

I investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Korea Single-Subsidiary Holdcos NAV Discount & Short Interest: Quick Thoughts on Trade

Korea Stubs Status Check: 15 in Total Incl. 3 New Ones

Korea Top Conglomerates Synthetic Pair Trading

Amorepacific Group: A New CEO & SoTP Valuation Discount

Amore Stub At -2.5σ & Wang Yi's Cancelled Visit: Entry Point for Range Trading

Amore Stub At -2.1σ: Expect Reversion for Three Reasons

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<p>Amore G is now at a -2.23σ on a 20D MA relative to its major subsidiary, Amore P.</p><p>It is a 2M low and also a 2-yr low.</p><p>In fact, it is virtually at a historic low. </p><table class="table table-striped">
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<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"% of sigma"}'>% of sigma</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Today"}'>Today</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-1"}'>T-1</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-2"}'>T-2</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-3"}'>T-3</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-4"}'>T-4</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-5"}'>T-5</td>
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<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Amore G"}'>Amore G</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-2.233672373317701}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=importrange(R9C1, "2!I2")'><strong>-223.37%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1.5482241709598867}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=importrange(R9C1, "2!I3")'>-154.82%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1.195277974328186}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=importrange(R9C1, "2!I4")'>-119.53%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.2360685150394095}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=importrange(R9C1, "2!I5")'>23.61%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.9598659936653405}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=importrange(R9C1, "2!I6")'>95.99%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.1379503406354312}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='=importrange(R9C1, "2!I7")'>113.80%</td>
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<tr><td colspan="7" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Celltrion"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0"}'>Source: KRX</td></tr>
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</table><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/196/028/original/chart+%282%29.png?1616348888" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="196028"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/196/029/original/chart.png?1616349056" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="196029"></figure></section><p>Holdco NAV discount now sits at 34.3%, still a historical peak level.</p><table class="table table-striped">
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<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"NAV (₩B)"}' data-sheets-note="Sang Hyun Park: Cases when a company's net cash position and the value of its publically traded interests are worth more than its market cap create the opportunity of a stub trade, in which investors can take a view that the company's core business will rise by shorting the minority stakes whilst going long the underlying. Such an opportunity has arisen in the wake of the Alibaba listing which has seen early investing company Yahoo trade at a discount to the value of its stake in Alibaba.">NAV (₩B)</td></tr>
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<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Value of listed holdings"}'>Value of listed holdings</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":5350.125102254677}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-formula="=SUM(R[36]C[2]:R[39]C[2])">5,350.1</td>
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<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - % of holdco market cap"}'>- % of Holdco market cap</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.0464982413988084}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]/((R[-12]C[0]*R[-15]C[0])/1000000000)">104.65%</td>
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<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Value of unlisted holdings"}'>Value of unlisted holdings</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1585.995}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-formula="=SUM(R[38]C[2]:R[45]C[2])">1,586.0</td>
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<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Stub value"}'>Stub value</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1823.7129422546768}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-formula="=(R[-14]C[0]*R[-17]C[0]/1000000000)-R[-3]C[0]-R[-1]C[0]">-1,823.7</td>
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<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Stub value per share"}'>Stub value per share</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-22116.82263972691}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"[$₩-412]#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]*1000000000/R[-18]C[0]">-₩22,117</td>
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<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Value of operating assets"}'>Value of operating assets</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":135}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-formula="=SUM(R[64]C[2]:R[65]C[2])">135.0</td>
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<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"GAV"}'>GAV</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":7071.120102254677}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-6]C[0]+R[-4]C[0]+R[-1]C[0]">7,071.1</td>
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<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"GAV per share"}'>GAV per share</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":91942.05008636798}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"[$₩-412]#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]/R[-11]C[0]*1000000000">₩91,942</td>
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<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Discount to GAV (excl. treasury shares)"}'>Discount to GAV (excl. treasury shares)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.325662197636894}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R[-1]C[0]-R[-19]C[0])/R[-1]C[0]">32.57%</td>
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<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Holdco net cash/debt (deconsolidated)"}'>Holdco net cash/debt (de-consolidated)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":327.2}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[62]C[2]">327.2</td>
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<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Value of pref shares"}'>Value of pref shares</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":140.1519975}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-20]C[0]*R[-17]C[0]/1000000000">140.2</td>
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<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"NAV"}'>NAV</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":7258.168104754676}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-5]C[0]+R[-2]C[0]-R[-1]C[0]">7,258.2</td>
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<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"NAV per share (excl. treasury shares)"}'>NAV per share (excl. treasury shares)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":94374.13673823046}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"[$₩-412]#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]/R[-16]C[0]*1000000000">₩94,374</td>
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<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Discount to NAV"}'>Discount to NAV</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.3430403483109782}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=(R[-1]C[0]-R[-24]C[0])/R[-1]C[0]">34.30%</td>
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<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX &amp; DART","6":1}'>Source: KRX &amp; DART</td></tr>
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</table>

Amore G is now at a -2.23σ on a 20D MA relative to its major subsidiary, Amore P.It is a 2M low and also a 2-yr low.In fact, it is virtually at a historic low. 











% of sigma
Today
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5


Amore G
-223.37%
-154.82%
-119.53%
23.61%
95.99%
113.80%

Source: KRX

Holdco NAV discount now sits at 34.3%, still a historical peak level.





NAV (₩B)

Value of listed holdings
5,350.1


- % of Holdco market cap
104.65%


Value of unlisted holdings
1,586.0


Stub value
-1,823.7


Stub value per share
-₩22,117


Value of operating assets
135.0


GAV
7,071.1


GAV per share
₩91,942


Discount to GAV (excl. treasury shares)
32.57%


Holdco net cash/debt (de-consolidated)
327.2


Value of pref shares
140.2


NAV
7,258.2


NAV per share (excl. treasury shares)
₩94,374


Discount to NAV
34.30%

Source: KRX &amp; DART



Amore G Stub Trade: Three Reasons Why Now Is an Entry Point