Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Alibaba’s Sum of the Parts Valuation:  Why the Initial Excitement May Be Overblown

China Online Marketplaces: Expecting Slow yet Steady Growth

Alibaba Cloud: Faces Nationalization Threat, IPO Prospects Remain Dim

Alibaba - OP Beat Driven By Cost Cutting Masks Dissapointments Everywhere Else

Alibaba: Buoyed By The Ending Crackdowns, Yet Expensive With No Turnaround in Sight For Cash Cows

Alibaba: A Mediocre Beat Won't Nullify Escalating US-China Tensions & A Deteriorating Core Business

Alibaba – Cash Cows in Trouble & Rapidly Rising COVID Creates New Headwinds

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Alibaba’s 3QFY23 results marginally topped consensus. With the share price dropping 0.65% cf. +0.35% for the index, both results and the price reaction were in line with our expectations.</li>
<li>Yesterday’s results confirm that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a>’s core businesses, Taobao and Tmall are in trouble and cost-cutting elsewhere is insufficient to offset the short-term weakness.</li>
<li>Therefore, we do think that this is a good opportunity to profit on the short side with Alibaba shares having the potential to fall another 40-45% in the short term.</li>
</ul>


Alibaba’s 3QFY23 results marginally topped consensus. With the share price dropping 0.65% cf. +0.35% for the index, both results and the price reaction were in line with our expectations.
Yesterday’s results confirm that Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)’s core businesses, Taobao and Tmall are in trouble and cost-cutting elsewhere is insufficient to offset the short-term weakness.
Therefore, we do think that this is a good opportunity to profit on the short side with Alibaba shares having the potential to fall another 40-45% in the short term.


Alibaba: Post Earnings Price Reaction Confirms Investors Are Worried Of a Fading Core-Business