Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Alibaba: A Long Way Down Already and a Lot More to Go

Alibaba: Rumoured Layoffs Could Be a Sign of The Company Running Out of Funding Sources

Alibaba Management Shake-Up: Long-Time CFO Maggie Wu Replaced, No Panicking Necessary

Alibaba Cloud’s Zero Dollars Valuation Look Realistic With The Suspension of The Cybersecurity Deal

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Even though the third quarter was seasonal historically, we are expecting the impact of seasonality to fade in future due to changes to Alibaba’s Core Commerce revenue composition.</li>
<li>Therefore, it seems like the market is expecting too much from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> in the third quarter with a consensus EBITDA estimate of RMB 51.7bn.</li>
<li>With equity markets near a breaking point and no change in investor sentiment towards Alibaba, an earnings miss in 3QFY22 could be potentially more price-sensitive than the last time.</li>
</ul>


Even though the third quarter was seasonal historically, we are expecting the impact of seasonality to fade in future due to changes to Alibaba’s Core Commerce revenue composition.
Therefore, it seems like the market is expecting too much from Alibaba Group (9988 HK) in the third quarter with a consensus EBITDA estimate of RMB 51.7bn.
With equity markets near a breaking point and no change in investor sentiment towards Alibaba, an earnings miss in 3QFY22 could be potentially more price-sensitive than the last time.


Alibaba Group Holding

Alibaba: Hitting the Brakes Hard