Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Alibaba: Buoyed By The Ending Crackdowns, Yet Expensive With No Turnaround in Sight For Cash Cows

Alibaba Group Holdings: Staying the Course

Alibaba: A Mediocre Beat Won't Nullify Escalating US-China Tensions & A Deteriorating Core Business

Alibaba - OP Beat Driven By Cost Cutting Masks Dissapointments Everywhere Else

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After bouncing more than 60% from a near-all-time low, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>’s progress seems to have ended abruptly with the share-price holding flat for almost a month in December-2022.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, the company's cash cows, Taobao and Tmall are losing market share. Rapidly rising COVID infections create new headwinds that could affect business performance for at least two more quarters.</li>
<li>With the shares trading near the top end of the new downward trend channel, we are short Alibaba as earnings are expected to miss consensus estimates in the next two-quarters.</li>
</ul>


After bouncing more than 60% from a near-all-time low, Alibaba Group (9988 HK)’s progress seems to have ended abruptly with the share-price holding flat for almost a month in December-2022.
Meanwhile, the company's cash cows, Taobao and Tmall are losing market share. Rapidly rising COVID infections create new headwinds that could affect business performance for at least two more quarters.
With the shares trading near the top end of the new downward trend channel, we are short Alibaba as earnings are expected to miss consensus estimates in the next two-quarters.


Alibaba – Cash Cows in Trouble & Rapidly Rising COVID Creates New Headwinds