Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Victor Galliano is an experienced equity banks analyst, having covered Latin America banks and non-bank financials for over 12 years, as well as more recently covering the Italian banks. He has worked in sell side equity research for 30 years in a career spanning Barclays, HSBC, BBVA LatInvest, Barings and NatWest.
Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.
The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Financials & FinTech research

Alibaba (BABA US): Looking to a Better ‘22

China’s Central Bank Digital Currency; Is It a Major Threat to Non-Bank Digital Payment Providers?

EM Consumer Discretionary:  Turbulent Times for Alibaba

Alibaba (BABA US): Why I Remain Constructive

Alibaba Group Holdings Analysis:  US Funds Capitulate

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>It all seems relatively quiet on the digital marketplace and payments space in China, from the regulatory perspective</li>
<li>The regulatory authorities appear to be busy with other issues, namely the potential fall out from the real estate crunch</li>
<li>We believe that Alibaba is past the worst of the regulatory headwinds, and that the tougher business climate is priced into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> shares</li>
<li>We revisit Alibaba, and its relative valuation to its core China peers and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> </li>
<li>Even following the cuts to EBITDA consensus forecasts, Alibaba looks inexpensive relative to Amazon and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> </li>
<li>The recent recovery in the shares is justified, in our view, and we see further medium term re-rating potential not just on fundamentals, but also due to technical factors</li>
<li>Risks to our positive view on Alibaba include a worse than expected loss of market share in its market place operation resulting in weaker earnings and further estimates downgrades</li>
</ul>


It all seems relatively quiet on the digital marketplace and payments space in China, from the regulatory perspective
The regulatory authorities appear to be busy with other issues, namely the potential fall out from the real estate crunch
We believe that Alibaba is past the worst of the regulatory headwinds, and that the tougher business climate is priced into Alibaba Group (BABA US) shares
We revisit Alibaba, and its relative valuation to its core China peers and Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) 
Even following the cuts to EBITDA consensus forecasts, Alibaba looks inexpensive relative to Amazon and Tencent (700 HK) 
The recent recovery in the shares is justified, in our view, and we see further medium term re-rating potential not just on fundamentals, but also due to technical factors
Risks to our positive view on Alibaba include a worse than expected loss of market share in its market place operation resulting in weaker earnings and further estimates downgrades


Alibaba (BABA US) – No Longer the Black Sheep?