Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Gross margin compression in China's express industry has been going on for years and predates the Covid crisis. But margins have enjoyed a modest recovery since late 2021</li>
<li>Since 2019, margins have fallen and the distribution of profits among China's listed express companies has changed dramatically, with two clear-cut losers</li>
<li>Even though two listed express companies have seen their profitability compressed dramatically, there are no signs of industry consolidation -- and some parties like it that way</li>
</ul>


Gross margin compression in China's express industry has been going on for years and predates the Covid crisis. But margins have enjoyed a modest recovery since late 2021
Since 2019, margins have fallen and the distribution of profits among China's listed express companies has changed dramatically, with two clear-cut losers
Even though two listed express companies have seen their profitability compressed dramatically, there are no signs of industry consolidation -- and some parties like it that way


Chinese Express Consolidation? Lesser Players Battered for Years, But Still No Knockout Punch

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ZTO reported C1Q23 top-line, IFRS EBIT, and non-IFRS net income (3.1%), 30%, and 30% vs. our est. ZTO raised volume est. to 20-24% YoY; </li>
<li>Margin beat as parcel cost was (8%) vs. our est., but we suggest also due to (1) parcel mix improvements, (2) output-based pay, and (3) lower % of KA customers; </li>
<li>Maintain BUY and raise TP to US$ 38 due improving gross profit per parcel and an end in-sight for CAPEX spending. Our TP implies 24x P/2023E.</li>
</ul>


ZTO reported C1Q23 top-line, IFRS EBIT, and non-IFRS net income (3.1%), 30%, and 30% vs. our est. ZTO raised volume est. to 20-24% YoY; 
Margin beat as parcel cost was (8%) vs. our est., but we suggest also due to (1) parcel mix improvements, (2) output-based pay, and (3) lower % of KA customers; 
Maintain BUY and raise TP to US$ 38 due improving gross profit per parcel and an end in-sight for CAPEX spending. Our TP implies 24x P/2023E.


[ZTO Express (ZTO US, BUY, TP US$38) TP Change]: Margin Improves While Capex Intensity Nears Peak

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23628:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express (ZTO US)</a> parcel volume increased by 20.5% Y/Y in Q1, better than market growth</li>
<li>Unit prices fell by 3.7%, slightly worse than peers in Q1 2023, and Revenue missed consensus</li>
<li>EPS beat expectations on lower unit costs, and management raised full-year volume target</li>
</ul>



ZTO Express (ZTO US) parcel volume increased by 20.5% Y/Y in Q1, better than market growth
Unit prices fell by 3.7%, slightly worse than peers in Q1 2023, and Revenue missed consensus
EPS beat expectations on lower unit costs, and management raised full-year volume target


ZTO Express Q1 Results Surprise: Despite Lower Pricing, Margins Up Y/Y | Mgmt Raises Volume Guidance

<ul>
<li>March parcel volume growth (22.7%) improved against an easy comp (-3.1%) from 2022</li>
<li>Prices are declining, too (-3.2% Y/Y) -- not yet precipitous, but worst since Q1 2022</li>
<li>Based on what we see, ZTO's 2023 volume targets will still be difficult to meet</li>
</ul>


March parcel volume growth (22.7%) improved against an easy comp (-3.1%) from 2022
Prices are declining, too (-3.2% Y/Y) -- not yet precipitous, but worst since Q1 2022
Based on what we see, ZTO's 2023 volume targets will still be difficult to meet


TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Express: Volume Up Versus Weak Comp | Prices Down | Yunda Lags Group

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lalatech-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36848:1" rel="noopener">Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd (LALA HK)</a>  is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming HK IPO.</li>
<li>Lalatech operates via a marketplace model serving merchants and carriers. Its platform facilitates closed-loop transactions from online shipping order booking to intelligent order matching, and automated dispatching to after-sale services.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd (LALA HK)  is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming HK IPO.
Lalatech operates via a marketplace model serving merchants and carriers. Its platform facilitates closed-loop transactions from online shipping order booking to intelligent order matching, and automated dispatching to after-sale services.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Lalatech Holdings Limited Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Has Raised a Lot of Money, so Has the Founder

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

Chinese Express Consolidation? Lesser Players Battered for Years, But Still No Knockout Punch

Margins in China's express sector have been falling for years. However, there are few signs of consolidation: companies remain profitable, and...

Tracking Traffic

[ZTO Express (ZTO US, BUY, TP US$38) TP Change]: Margin Improves While Capex Intensity Nears Peak

Margin beat as parcel cost was (8%) vs. our est., we suggest also due to (1) parcel mix improvements, (2) output-based pay, and (3) lower % of KA...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

ZTO Express Q1 Results Surprise: Despite Lower Pricing, Margins Up Y/Y | Mgmt Raises Volume Guidance

ZTO's Q1 results showed strong volume growth, but also weaker unit pricing and a lack of control over SG&A expenses. We retain our negative view on...

Tracking Traffic

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Express: Volume Up Versus Weak Comp | Prices Down | Yunda Lags Group

In March, Chinese express industry volume was up 22.7% Y/Y against easy comps, but ASPs declined the most since February 2022. We still believe ZTO...

Tracking Traffic

Lalatech Holdings Limited Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Has Raised a Lot of Money, so Has the Founder

Lalatech Holdings is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming HK IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Sumeet Singh

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