Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Industry and company reports show ASP declines gained momentum in April</li>
<li>April volume jumped 36% Y/Y on a weak comp from 2022 (Covid-19 lockdowns)</li>
<li>Our thesis: pricing is getting weaker, and this trend will soon impact margins</li>
</ul>


Industry and company reports show ASP declines gained momentum in April
April volume jumped 36% Y/Y on a weak comp from 2022 (Covid-19 lockdowns)
Our thesis: pricing is getting weaker, and this trend will soon impact margins


Monthly Express Tracker | Prices Continue to Slide | Volume Pops | (May 2023)

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Macro News Update: Our take from the decision draft of the CCP 3rd Plenary Session</li>
<li>1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume shows 31% y-o-y growth (+)</li>
<li>1810 HK/981 HK: Huawei’s mid-premium Nova 13 smartphone to be delayed (+//)</li>
</ul>


Macro News Update: Our take from the decision draft of the CCP 3rd Plenary Session
1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume shows 31% y-o-y growth (+)
1810 HK/981 HK: Huawei’s mid-premium Nova 13 smartphone to be delayed (+//)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1519 HK/ZTO US/1810 HK/981 HK/XPEV US/LI US/NIO US/QCOM US/TSMC US

<ul>
<li>ZTO reported C4Q23 top-line, GAAP EBIT, and non-GAAP net income (2.2%), (3.8%), and in-line vs. cons., respectively;</li>
<li>There are two concurrent trends in the last-mile market: (1) improved service quality, and (2) smaller parcel sizes. Both are favorable to ZTO, in our view;</li>
<li>ZTO announced new shareholder return plans, which we estimate could return US$ 1.4bn to investors in 2024 for a 7.7% yield;</li>
</ul>


ZTO reported C4Q23 top-line, GAAP EBIT, and non-GAAP net income (2.2%), (3.8%), and in-line vs. cons., respectively;
There are two concurrent trends in the last-mile market: (1) improved service quality, and (2) smaller parcel sizes. Both are favorable to ZTO, in our view;
ZTO announced new shareholder return plans, which we estimate could return US$ 1.4bn to investors in 2024 for a 7.7% yield;


[ZTO Express (ZTO US, BUY, TP US$24) Target Price Change]: Two Trends, Both Are Favorable to ZTO

<ul>
<li>In Q423, ZTO's parcel volumes grew by +32% Y/Y, faster than market growth</li>
<li>But weak pricing resulted in EPS growth of just +2% Y/Y in the period</li>
<li>In FY24, management expects parcel growth to roughly halve - AVOID</li>
</ul>


In Q423, ZTO's parcel volumes grew by +32% Y/Y, faster than market growth
But weak pricing resulted in EPS growth of just +2% Y/Y in the period
In FY24, management expects parcel growth to roughly halve - AVOID


ZTO Express Q423 Results & Guidance in One Simple Table | +32% Volume --> +2% EPS?! | AVOID

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.</li>
</ul>


PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

Monthly Express Tracker | Prices Continue to Slide | Volume Pops | (May 2023)

In April, express volume shot up 36% against easy Y/Y comps, but ASPs deepened their recent decline. We believe pricing will continue to...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1519 HK/ZTO US/1810 HK/981 HK/XPEV US/LI US/NIO US/QCOM US/TSMC US

CCP 3rd Plenary Session decision draft analyzed; parcel volume growth for HK/ZTO and Huawei's Nova 13 smartphone delay.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[ZTO Express (ZTO US, BUY, TP US$24) Target Price Change]: Two Trends, Both Are Favorable to ZTO

ZTO's strong financials, favorable market trends, and new shareholder return plans position the company for continued growth and investor returns.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

ZTO Express Q423 Results & Guidance in One Simple Table | +32% Volume --> +2% EPS?! | AVOID

ZTO managed to convert +32% volume growth in Q423 into just +2% EPS growth. Looking at 2024, management expects volume growth to slow dramatically.

Tracking Traffic

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Express Tracker | Prices Continue to Slide | Volume Pops | (May 2023)

In April, express volume shot up 36% against easy Y/Y comps, but ASPs deepened their recent decline. We believe pricing will continue to...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1519 HK/ZTO US/1810 HK/981 HK/XPEV US/LI US/NIO US/QCOM US/TSMC US

​CCP 3rd Plenary Session decision draft analyzed; parcel volume growth for HK/ZTO and Huawei's Nova 13 smartphone delay.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[ZTO Express (ZTO US, BUY, TP US$24) Target Price Change]: Two Trends, Both Are Favorable to ZTO

​ZTO's strong financials, favorable market trends, and new shareholder return plans position the company for continued growth and investor returns.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

ZTO Express Q423 Results & Guidance in One Simple Table | +32% Volume --> +2% EPS?! | AVOID

ZTO managed to convert +32% volume growth in Q423 into just +2% EPS growth. Looking at 2024, management expects volume growth to slow dramatically.

Tracking Traffic

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

CCP 3rd Plenary Session decision draft analyzed; parcel volume growth for HK/ZTO and Huawei's Nova 13 smartphone delay.

ZTO's strong financials, favorable market trends, and new shareholder return plans position the company for continued growth and investor returns.