Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (JDL HK)</a> , the delivery arm of China’s second largest e-commerce platform JD.com has filed for an IPO to list its shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. According to news media outlets, JD Logistics is looking to raise about US$3-4bn through the IPO.</p><p>The company has won the approval for its HKEX listing and released its post-hearing information pack (PHIP) on Sunday (02<sup>nd</sup> May) and this insight focuses on the company’s new data points from the PHIP.</p><p>In our previous two insights on JD logistics’ IPO, we examined the company’s business model, revenue and margins. Read our previous insights:</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-expanding-external-customer-base-supports-top-line-growth-and-gpm-expansion" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48526" rel="noopener">JD Logistics IPO: Expanding External Customer Base Supports Top Line Growth and GPM Expansion</a> </p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-margin-improvement-likely-with-expanding-external-revenues-and-falling-costs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48764" rel="noopener">JD Logistics IPO: Margin Improvement Likely with Expanding External Revenues and Falling Costs</a> </p>

JD Logistics (JDL HK) , the delivery arm of China’s second largest e-commerce platform JD.com has filed for an IPO to list its shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. According to news media outlets, JD Logistics is looking to raise about US$3-4bn through the IPO.The company has won the approval for its HKEX listing and released its post-hearing information pack (PHIP) on Sunday (02nd May) and this insight focuses on the company’s new data points from the PHIP.In our previous two insights on JD logistics’ IPO, we examined the company’s business model, revenue and margins. Read our previous insights:JD Logistics IPO: Expanding External Customer Base Supports Top Line Growth and GPM Expansion JD Logistics IPO: Margin Improvement Likely with Expanding External Revenues and Falling Costs 

JD Logistics: Investment for Growth to Hurt Margins in the Medium-Term but Key to Long-Term Profits

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (JDL HK)</a> is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain logistics services market, with a 2.7% revenue market share in 2020, according to CIC. JD Logistics was founded with the formation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a>’s in-house logistics department in 2007. JD Group is the controlling shareholder with a 79.12% stake. JD Logistics has won approval for an HKEx IPO to raise $3-4 billion, according to press reports. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-ipo-initiation-the-flow-of-things" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48279" rel="noopener">JD Logistics IPO Initiation: The Flow of Things</a>, we stated that JD Logistics is an indirect play on the shift of some customer behaviour permanently to online shopping, particularly in fast-moving consumer goods. We concluded that JD Logistics fundamentals are attractive and it remains well-placed to address consumers demand for faster and more flexible supply chain logistics services. </p><p>In this note, we look at the PHIP which discloses the 2020 results and recent developments. The results underscore the positives which are strong growth, rising margin and cash generation. However, the outlook is mixed as JD Logistics cautions that it will pursue market share gains at the cost of profitability over the medium term. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>The Chinese logistics market is highly price-competitive, and scale is crucial to sustained profitable growth. In a consolidating market, the eventual winners will be companies that can invest in infrastructure and capacity to gain market share and economies of scale benefits. We think that JD Logistics has the right ingredients to ride out the industry’s current price-competitive dynamics and deliver good shareholder returns over the medium term. </p></div>

JD Logistics (JDL HK) is the largest player in China’s integrated supply chain logistics services market, with a 2.7% revenue market share in 2020, according to CIC. JD Logistics was founded with the formation of JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)’s in-house logistics department in 2007. JD Group is the controlling shareholder with a 79.12% stake. JD Logistics has won approval for an HKEx IPO to raise $3-4 billion, according to press reports. In JD Logistics IPO Initiation: The Flow of Things, we stated that JD Logistics is an indirect play on the shift of some customer behaviour permanently to online shopping, particularly in fast-moving consumer goods. We concluded that JD Logistics fundamentals are attractive and it remains well-placed to address consumers demand for faster and more flexible supply chain logistics services. In this note, we look at the PHIP which discloses the 2020 results and recent developments. The results underscore the positives which are strong growth, rising margin and cash generation. However, the outlook is mixed as JD Logistics cautions that it will pursue market share gains at the cost of profitability over the medium term. The Chinese logistics market is highly price-competitive, and scale is crucial to sustained profitable growth. In a consolidating market, the eventual winners will be companies that can invest in infrastructure and capacity to gain market share and economies of scale benefits. We think that JD Logistics has the right ingredients to ride out the industry’s current price-competitive dynamics and deliver good shareholder returns over the medium term. 

JD Logistics IPO: Prioritizing Market Share Gains over Margins

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (JDL HK)</a> is looking to raise US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. </p></div><div>
<p>JD Logistics (JDL) was the leading supply chain solutions and logistics services provider in China in terms of revenue in 2018 and 2019. The company offers a full spectrum of supply chain solutions and logistics services ranging from warehousing to distribution, spanning across manufacturing to end-customers, covering regular and specialized items. </p>
<p>In this note, we will share our forecast and assumptions as well as thoughts on where JDL should trade.</p>
<p>We had previously covered the IPO in:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-shielded-from-price-war" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50575" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Shielded from Price War</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jd-logistics-pre-ipo-tethered-to-jd-group-and-looking-beyond" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48396" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Tethered to JD Group and Looking Beyond</a> </li>
</ul>
</div>

JD Logistics (JDL HK) is looking to raise US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
JD Logistics (JDL) was the leading supply chain solutions and logistics services provider in China in terms of revenue in 2018 and 2019. The company offers a full spectrum of supply chain solutions and logistics services ranging from warehousing to distribution, spanning across manufacturing to end-customers, covering regular and specialized items. 
In this note, we will share our forecast and assumptions as well as thoughts on where JDL should trade.
We had previously covered the IPO in:


JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Shielded from Price War 

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Tethered to JD Group and Looking Beyond 



JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (JDL HK)</a> is looking to raise US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. </p></div><div>
<p>JD Logistics (JDL) was the leading supply chain solutions and logistics services provider in China in terms of revenue in 2018 and 2019. The company offers a full spectrum of supply chain solutions and logistics services ranging from warehousing to distribution, spanning across manufacturing to end-customers, covering regular and specialized items. </p>
<p>In this note, we take a look at the industry dynamics and how JD Logistics competes against peers.</p>
</div>

JD Logistics (JDL HK) is looking to raise US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
JD Logistics (JDL) was the leading supply chain solutions and logistics services provider in China in terms of revenue in 2018 and 2019. The company offers a full spectrum of supply chain solutions and logistics services ranging from warehousing to distribution, spanning across manufacturing to end-customers, covering regular and specialized items. 
In this note, we take a look at the industry dynamics and how JD Logistics competes against peers.


JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Shielded from Price War

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>Indonesia's leading transportation and logistics company,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> posted an increase in revenue of over +30% to IDR 3.04tn in 2020. The growth in the company's revenue was supported by the stable performance from all of its business segments but driven by its core car rental business under ASSA rent together with its last-mile courier service, Anteraja.  The company booked a -21% decline in net income in 2020 but we expect profit to see strong growth in the next two years as Anteraja has now broken even.</p>
</div>
<p>Anteraja recorded a significant increase in revenue performance of +842.0% For FY2020, making up around a quarter of<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> 's total revenue versus only 3.5% of sales in 2019. Management predicts that Anteraja should make up over 50% of sales in the next 1-2 years and it has already broken even, which should also make it an important future profit driver. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> has also been developing a number of new initiatives including a car-sharing platform called ShareCar, an online C2C car sales marketplace called Caroline, and a warehouse fulfillment business through Titipaja.</p>
<p>It continues to grow its car rental business and will expand its fleet further in 2021, with an expected recovery in the private sector but also increasing growth in demand from the government.</p>
<p>Its car auction business under JBA Bid Win also saw strong growth in 2020, with strong growth in the second-hand car market. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> remains an interesting digital transformation story, with huge potential from Anterja to drive future growth but with a stable revenue base coming from its car rental and auction business. It trades on 10.9x FY21E EV/EBITDA and 8.7x FY22E EV/EBITDA and an FY22E PER of 30x but we expect continuing momentum behind the digital growth story. </p>


Indonesia's leading transportation and logistics company, Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) posted an increase in revenue of over +30% to IDR 3.04tn in 2020. The growth in the company's revenue was supported by the stable performance from all of its business segments but driven by its core car rental business under ASSA rent together with its last-mile courier service, Anteraja.  The company booked a -21% decline in net income in 2020 but we expect profit to see strong growth in the next two years as Anteraja has now broken even.

Anteraja recorded a significant increase in revenue performance of +842.0% For FY2020, making up around a quarter of Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) 's total revenue versus only 3.5% of sales in 2019. Management predicts that Anteraja should make up over 50% of sales in the next 1-2 years and it has already broken even, which should also make it an important future profit driver. 
Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) has also been developing a number of new initiatives including a car-sharing platform called ShareCar, an online C2C car sales marketplace called Caroline, and a warehouse fulfillment business through Titipaja.
It continues to grow its car rental business and will expand its fleet further in 2021, with an expected recovery in the private sector but also increasing growth in demand from the government.
Its car auction business under JBA Bid Win also saw strong growth in 2020, with strong growth in the second-hand car market. 
Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) remains an interesting digital transformation story, with huge potential from Anterja to drive future growth but with a stable revenue base coming from its car rental and auction business. It trades on 10.9x FY21E EV/EBITDA and 8.7x FY22E EV/EBITDA and an FY22E PER of 30x but we expect continuing momentum behind the digital growth story. 

Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) - All Aboard for a Digital Ride

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

JD Logistics: Investment for Growth to Hurt Margins in the Medium-Term but Key to Long-Term Profits

This insight focuses on the new data points from the PHIP of JD Logistics who has filed for an IPO to raise about US$3-4bn.

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

JD Logistics (JDL HK) is looking to raise US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. JD Logistics (JDL) was the leading supply chain solutions and...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Shielded from Price War

JD Logistics (JDL HK) is looking to raise US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. JD Logistics (JDL) was the leading supply chain solutions and...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) - All Aboard for a Digital Ride

ASSA continues to demonstrate its ability to transform from a car leasing company into a transport and logistics operator with increasing exposure...

Angus Mackintosh

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JD Logistics: Investment for Growth to Hurt Margins in the Medium-Term but Key to Long-Term Profits

This insight focuses on the new data points from the PHIP of JD Logistics who has filed for an IPO to raise about US$3-4bn.

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

JD Logistics IPO: Prioritizing Market Share Gains over Margins

JD Logistics has won approval for an HKEx IPO to raise $3-4 bn. JD Logistics has the right ingredients to ride out the industry’s price-competitive...

Arun George

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

JD Logistics (JDL HK) is looking to raise US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. JD Logistics (JDL) was the leading supply chain solutions and...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Shielded from Price War

JD Logistics (JDL HK) is looking to raise US$4bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. JD Logistics (JDL) was the leading supply chain solutions and...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) - All Aboard for a Digital Ride

ASSA continues to demonstrate its ability to transform from a car leasing company into a transport and logistics operator with increasing exposure...

Angus Mackintosh