IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hangzhou-sf-intra-city-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34916:1" rel="noopener">SF Intra-City (1874747D CH)</a> is the largest independent third-party on-demand delivery service provider in China. It is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 million, according to reports. </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sf-intra-city-industrial-ipo-initiation-missed-delivery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:60224" rel="noopener">SF Intra-City Industrial IPO Initiation: Missed Delivery</a>, we stated that it offers an unappetizing mix of high growth at the cost of gross losses and cash burn. </li>
<li>The PHIP which discloses 5M21 results continues to highlight the growth at all costs strategy. We continue to think that SF Intra-city’s fundamentals are less than inspiring. </li>
</ul>



SF Intra-City (1874747D CH) is the largest independent third-party on-demand delivery service provider in China. It is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 million, according to reports. 
In SF Intra-City Industrial IPO Initiation: Missed Delivery, we stated that it offers an unappetizing mix of high growth at the cost of gross losses and cash burn. 
The PHIP which discloses 5M21 results continues to highlight the growth at all costs strategy. We continue to think that SF Intra-city’s fundamentals are less than inspiring. 


SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Delivering Losses

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

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<p>ANE, an express freight network operator in China for less-than-truckload (LTL) market, raised around US$143m in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by a host of financial investors including Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.</p>
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<div>We covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes,</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/59814/ANE%20Logistics%20Pre-IPO%20-%20Margins%20Expanding%20but%20Appears%20to%20Be%20Falling%20Behind" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics Pre-IPO - Margins expanding but appears to be falling behind,</a> </li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ane-logistics-pre-ipo-phip-updates-underlying-growth-is-far-from-clear" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics Pre-IPO - PHIP updates - Underlying growth is far from clear</a> and</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ane-logistics-ipo-weird-disclosures-continue" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics IPO - Weird Disclosures Continue</a></li>
</ul>
<p>In this note, we will talk about updates since our last note</p>
</div>


ANE, an express freight network operator in China for less-than-truckload (LTL) market, raised around US$143m in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is backed by a host of financial investors including Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.

We covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier notes,



ANE Logistics Pre-IPO - Margins expanding but appears to be falling behind, 

ANE Logistics Pre-IPO - PHIP updates - Underlying growth is far from clear and
ANE Logistics IPO - Weird Disclosures Continue

In this note, we will talk about updates since our last note


ANE Logistics IPO Trading - No Demand, We Would Stay Clear

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hangzhou-sf-intra-city-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34916:1" rel="noopener">SF Intra-City (1874747D CH)</a> is the largest independent third-party on-demand delivery service provider with an 11.0% market share in the 12 months ended 31 March 2021, according to iResearch. </p><p>SF Intra-city is seeking approval for an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 million, according to press reports. SF Intra-city’s controlling shareholder is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a>, which holds a 75.1% stake. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>SF Intra-city offers an unappetizing mix of high growth at the cost of losses (at the gross profit level) and cash burn. In comparison to recent logistics IPOs such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34119:1" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics (1292621D CH)</a>, SF Intra-city’s disclosure particularly on unit cost economies is sorely lacking. On balance, we think that SF Intra-city’s fundamentals are less than inspiring. Considering the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs, this IPO warrants a pass. </p></div>

SF Intra-City (1874747D CH) is the largest independent third-party on-demand delivery service provider with an 11.0% market share in the 12 months ended 31 March 2021, according to iResearch. SF Intra-city is seeking approval for an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 million, according to press reports. SF Intra-city’s controlling shareholder is S.F. Holding (002352 CH), which holds a 75.1% stake. SF Intra-city offers an unappetizing mix of high growth at the cost of losses (at the gross profit level) and cash burn. In comparison to recent logistics IPOs such as ANE Logistics (1292621D CH), SF Intra-city’s disclosure particularly on unit cost economies is sorely lacking. On balance, we think that SF Intra-city’s fundamentals are less than inspiring. Considering the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs, this IPO warrants a pass. 

SF Intra-City Industrial IPO Initiation: Missed Delivery

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34119:1" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics (1292621D CH)</a> has announced the terms for its IPO where it plans to sell 80.2m shares (6.9% of the total outstanding shares) at an indicative IPO price range of HK$13.88-16.88 per share. At the midpoint of the IPO price range of HK$15.38 per share, ANE will raise net proceeds of HK$1,124.1m (US$114.5m) at a market capitalisation of HK$17.9bn and a post-money enterprise value of HK$16.3bn. Bloomberg previously reported that the company plans to raise net proceeds of US$500m through the IPO, however, the offer was significantly downsized.</p><p>The company plans to use approx. 40.0% of the net IPO proceeds on building, upgrading and potential acquisitions of 5-10 key transit hubs in strategic locations over the next 24-36 months. ANE plans to allocate 30.0% of the net IPO proceeds for investing in its line-haul truck fleet and another 20% for technology innovations.</p><p>The company has entered into cornerstone investment agreement with Harvest International Premium Value Fund SPC for an aggregate of US$12.5m (approx. HK$97.23m) which represents about 7.88% of the offer shares at the midpoint of the IPO price range.</p>

ANE Logistics (1292621D CH) has announced the terms for its IPO where it plans to sell 80.2m shares (6.9% of the total outstanding shares) at an indicative IPO price range of HK$13.88-16.88 per share. At the midpoint of the IPO price range of HK$15.38 per share, ANE will raise net proceeds of HK$1,124.1m (US$114.5m) at a market capitalisation of HK$17.9bn and a post-money enterprise value of HK$16.3bn. Bloomberg previously reported that the company plans to raise net proceeds of US$500m through the IPO, however, the offer was significantly downsized.The company plans to use approx. 40.0% of the net IPO proceeds on building, upgrading and potential acquisitions of 5-10 key transit hubs in strategic locations over the next 24-36 months. ANE plans to allocate 30.0% of the net IPO proceeds for investing in its line-haul truck fleet and another 20% for technology innovations.The company has entered into cornerstone investment agreement with Harvest International Premium Value Fund SPC for an aggregate of US$12.5m (approx. HK$97.23m) which represents about 7.88% of the offer shares at the midpoint of the IPO price range.

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34119:1" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics (1292621D CH)</a> operates a leading express freight network in China’s less-than-truckload (LTL) market. ANE operated the largest express freight network in China as measured by annual total freight volume in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to iResearch. ANE’s shareholders include Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.</p>
<p>At the proposed IPO price range of HK$13.88-16.88 per share, ANE will have a market cap of HK$16,137-19,625 million ($2.1-2.5 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are HK$1,124.1 million ($144 million), materially below the rumoured target of $500 million.</p>
<p>A single cornerstone investor, Harvest Prosperity SP, will purchase $12.5 million worth of the offer shares (7.88% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). </p>
</div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ane-logistics-ipo-initiation-home-delivery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57807" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics IPO Initiation: Home Delivery</a>, we stated that ANE is a play on China’s LTL market which offers substantial opportunities for market consolidation as the top 10 LTL operators in China had a market share of 5.7% by shipper spend in 2020, according to iResearch. As the largest (by freight volume), fastest-growing and most profitable player, ANE is well-positioned to be a market consolidator. We concluded that ANE’s fundamentals are solid. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ane-ipo-the-freight-debate" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57957" rel="noopener">ANE IPO: The Freight Debate</a>, we stated that the PHIP continues to support our view that the ANE IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs. Our valuation analysis, suggests that the IPO price range is attractive particularly at the low-end.</p></div></div></div>


ANE Logistics (1292621D CH) operates a leading express freight network in China’s less-than-truckload (LTL) market. ANE operated the largest express freight network in China as measured by annual total freight volume in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to iResearch. ANE’s shareholders include Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.
At the proposed IPO price range of HK$13.88-16.88 per share, ANE will have a market cap of HK$16,137-19,625 million ($2.1-2.5 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are HK$1,124.1 million ($144 million), materially below the rumoured target of $500 million.
A single cornerstone investor, Harvest Prosperity SP, will purchase $12.5 million worth of the offer shares (7.88% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). 
In ANE Logistics IPO Initiation: Home Delivery, we stated that ANE is a play on China’s LTL market which offers substantial opportunities for market consolidation as the top 10 LTL operators in China had a market share of 5.7% by shipper spend in 2020, according to iResearch. As the largest (by freight volume), fastest-growing and most profitable player, ANE is well-positioned to be a market consolidator. We concluded that ANE’s fundamentals are solid. In ANE IPO: The Freight Debate, we stated that the PHIP continues to support our view that the ANE IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs. Our valuation analysis, suggests that the IPO price range is attractive particularly at the low-end.

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Delivering Losses

SF Intra-city is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 m. The PHIP continues to show that it offers an unappetizing mix of high growth at...

Arun George

ANE Logistics IPO Trading - No Demand, We Would Stay Clear

ANE, an express freight network operator in China for less-than-truckload (LTL) market, raised around US$143m in its Hong Kong IPO. The company is...

Sumeet Singh

SF Intra-City Industrial IPO Initiation: Missed Delivery

SF Intra-city is seeking approval for an HKEx IPO to raise up to $500 m. We think that SF Intra-city’s fundamentals are less than inspiring and...

Arun George

ANE IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

At the midpoint, ANE will raise US$114.5m, a significant downsize of its offer. Our valuation suggests ANE's IPO pricing is expensive and absence...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

ANE IPO: Valuation Insights

At the proposed IPO price range of HK$13.88-16.88 per share, the net proceeds are $144 m. Our valuation analysis, suggests that the IPO price range...

Arun George

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