China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ZTO reported C1Q23 top-line, IFRS EBIT, and non-IFRS net income (3.1%), 30%, and 30% vs. our est. ZTO raised volume est. to 20-24% YoY; </li>
<li>Margin beat as parcel cost was (8%) vs. our est., but we suggest also due to (1) parcel mix improvements, (2) output-based pay, and (3) lower % of KA customers; </li>
<li>Maintain BUY and raise TP to US$ 38 due improving gross profit per parcel and an end in-sight for CAPEX spending. Our TP implies 24x P/2023E.</li>
</ul>


ZTO reported C1Q23 top-line, IFRS EBIT, and non-IFRS net income (3.1%), 30%, and 30% vs. our est. ZTO raised volume est. to 20-24% YoY; 
Margin beat as parcel cost was (8%) vs. our est., but we suggest also due to (1) parcel mix improvements, (2) output-based pay, and (3) lower % of KA customers; 
Maintain BUY and raise TP to US$ 38 due improving gross profit per parcel and an end in-sight for CAPEX spending. Our TP implies 24x P/2023E.


[ZTO Express (ZTO US, BUY, TP US$38) TP Change]: Margin Improves While Capex Intensity Nears Peak

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23628:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express (ZTO US)</a> parcel volume increased by 20.5% Y/Y in Q1, better than market growth</li>
<li>Unit prices fell by 3.7%, slightly worse than peers in Q1 2023, and Revenue missed consensus</li>
<li>EPS beat expectations on lower unit costs, and management raised full-year volume target</li>
</ul>



ZTO Express (ZTO US) parcel volume increased by 20.5% Y/Y in Q1, better than market growth
Unit prices fell by 3.7%, slightly worse than peers in Q1 2023, and Revenue missed consensus
EPS beat expectations on lower unit costs, and management raised full-year volume target


ZTO Express Q1 Results Surprise: Despite Lower Pricing, Margins Up Y/Y | Mgmt Raises Volume Guidance

<ul>
<li>March parcel volume growth (22.7%) improved against an easy comp (-3.1%) from 2022</li>
<li>Prices are declining, too (-3.2% Y/Y) -- not yet precipitous, but worst since Q1 2022</li>
<li>Based on what we see, ZTO's 2023 volume targets will still be difficult to meet</li>
</ul>


March parcel volume growth (22.7%) improved against an easy comp (-3.1%) from 2022
Prices are declining, too (-3.2% Y/Y) -- not yet precipitous, but worst since Q1 2022
Based on what we see, ZTO's 2023 volume targets will still be difficult to meet


TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Express: Volume Up Versus Weak Comp | Prices Down | Yunda Lags Group

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lalatech-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36848:1" rel="noopener">Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd (LALA HK)</a>  is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming HK IPO.</li>
<li>Lalatech operates via a marketplace model serving merchants and carriers. Its platform facilitates closed-loop transactions from online shipping order booking to intelligent order matching, and automated dispatching to after-sale services.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd (LALA HK)  is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming HK IPO.
Lalatech operates via a marketplace model serving merchants and carriers. Its platform facilitates closed-loop transactions from online shipping order booking to intelligent order matching, and automated dispatching to after-sale services.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


Lalatech Holdings Limited Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Has Raised a Lot of Money, so Has the Founder

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lalatech-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36848:1" rel="noopener">Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd (LALA HK)</a> is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming HK IPO.</li>
<li>Lalatech operates via a marketplace model serving merchants and carriers. Its platform facilitates closed-loop transactions from online shipping order booking to intelligent order matching, and automated dispatching to after-sale services.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd (LALA HK) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming HK IPO.
Lalatech operates via a marketplace model serving merchants and carriers. Its platform facilitates closed-loop transactions from online shipping order booking to intelligent order matching, and automated dispatching to after-sale services.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Lalatech Holdings Limited Pre-IPO - The Positives - A Leader in Closed-Loop

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

[ZTO Express (ZTO US, BUY, TP US$38) TP Change]: Margin Improves While Capex Intensity Nears Peak

Margin beat as parcel cost was (8%) vs. our est., we suggest also due to (1) parcel mix improvements, (2) output-based pay, and (3) lower % of KA...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

ZTO Express Q1 Results Surprise: Despite Lower Pricing, Margins Up Y/Y | Mgmt Raises Volume Guidance

ZTO's Q1 results showed strong volume growth, but also weaker unit pricing and a lack of control over SG&A expenses. We retain our negative view on...

Tracking Traffic

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Express: Volume Up Versus Weak Comp | Prices Down | Yunda Lags Group

In March, Chinese express industry volume was up 22.7% Y/Y against easy comps, but ASPs declined the most since February 2022. We still believe ZTO...

Tracking Traffic

Lalatech Holdings Limited Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Has Raised a Lot of Money, so Has the Founder

Lalatech Holdings is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming HK IPO. In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Sumeet Singh

Lalatech Holdings Limited Pre-IPO - The Positives - A Leader in Closed-Loop

Lalatech Holdings is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming HK IPO. In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Sumeet Singh

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