IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a>, a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China, has launched a HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million at a fixed price of HK$12.00.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104964" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:105041" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-updates-tilts-the-balance-positively" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:114387" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Updates Tilts the Balance Positively</a>. 
</li>
<li>The IPO price range is unattractive, with our SoTP valuation of HK$10.75 per share, 10% below the IPO price. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK), a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China, has launched a HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million at a fixed price of HK$12.00.
We previously discussed the IPO in J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case, J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case and J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Updates Tilts the Balance Positively. 

The IPO price range is unattractive, with our SoTP valuation of HK$10.75 per share, 10% below the IPO price. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.


J&T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express</a>, a global logistics service provider, is looking to raise about US$500m in its  Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 22.5% market share as per 2022 parcel volume.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express, a global logistics service provider, is looking to raise about US$500m in its  Hong Kong IPO.
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 22.5% market share as per 2022 parcel volume.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.


J&T Global Express IPO - Team Effort for Some Heavy Lifting

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>In this insight we consider what it would take to pull our valuation up closer to US$13 bn</li>
<li>Such a valuation would require solid revenue growth (+17-18% Y/Y or better), plus sustained progress on raising China and 'Other' EBITDA margins, which are currently negative</li>
<li>Even with these optimistic assumptions, J&amp;T would trade at 20x EV/2025 Adj EBITDA &amp; at historical EV/Revenue multiples far above more profitable Chinese express names</li>
</ul>


In this insight we consider what it would take to pull our valuation up closer to US$13 bn
Such a valuation would require solid revenue growth (+17-18% Y/Y or better), plus sustained progress on raising China and 'Other' EBITDA margins, which are currently negative
Even with these optimistic assumptions, J&amp;T would trade at 20x EV/2025 Adj EBITDA &amp; at historical EV/Revenue multiples far above more profitable Chinese express names


J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 6 | How We Could Potentially Get Closer To US$13 Bn Valuation

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>How did CaiNiao turn profitable? We answer with an analysis of the company's P&amp;L</li>
<li>We also analyze CaiNiao's Balance Sheet, Cash Flow statement, and Operating Stats</li>
<li>We conclude with a list of ten questions we would put to CaiNiao management</li>
</ul>


How did CaiNiao turn profitable? We answer with an analysis of the company's P&amp;L
We also analyze CaiNiao's Balance Sheet, Cash Flow statement, and Operating Stats
We conclude with a list of ten questions we would put to CaiNiao management


CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 2 | Analyzing Financial Statements & Operating Statistics

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express</a>, a global logistics service provider, is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 22.5% market share as per 2022 parcel volume.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express, a global logistics service provider, is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 22.5% market share as per 2022 parcel volume.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.


J&T Global Express Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

J&T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights

The IPO price range is unattractive, with our SoTP valuation of HK$10.75 per share, 10% below the IPO price. Therefore, we would pass on the IPO.

Arun George

J&T Global Express IPO - Team Effort for Some Heavy Lifting

J&T Global Express, a global logistics service provider, is looking to raise about US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about its...

Sumeet Singh

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 6 | How We Could Potentially Get Closer To US$13 Bn Valuation

In this insight we consider the assumptions for top-line growth and margin improvement that could conceivably get us (closer) to the company's...

Tracking Traffic

CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 2 | Analyzing Financial Statements & Operating Statistics

In this insight we scrutinize CaiNiao's financial statements, analyze the few operating statistics the company provided in its prospectus, and...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

J&T Global Express, a global logistics service provider, is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

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