Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Headline February numbers look pretty good -- but they're misleading</li>
<li>On a combined basis, January-February data show ASPs still under pressure</li>
<li>Recent results from ZTO and J&amp;T Global have been unimpressive, in our view</li>
</ul>


Headline February numbers look pretty good -- but they're misleading
On a combined basis, January-February data show ASPs still under pressure
Recent results from ZTO and J&amp;T Global have been unimpressive, in our view


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | ASPs Still Under Pressure | Weaker X-Border Volume? | (March 2024)

<ul>
<li>Organic growth in J&amp;T's China operations exceeded that of peers...</li>
<li>...but the implosion of New Markets and X-Border is a shock</li>
<li>Lower margins from SE Asian cash cow also a surprise, in our view</li>
</ul>


Organic growth in J&amp;T's China operations exceeded that of peers...
...but the implosion of New Markets and X-Border is a shock
Lower margins from SE Asian cash cow also a surprise, in our view


The Three Biggest Surprises in J&T Global Express' Maiden Earnings Report

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>NTES: &lt;Identity V&gt; Has Reached a New High In Download Rankings In The Past 12 Months (+)</li>
<li>ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD: Parcel volume last week grew 21% yoy (+)</li>
<li>BABA/SHEIN: AliExpress launches new subsidies to attract woman’s apparel merchants (+/-)  </li>
</ul>


NTES: &lt;Identity V&gt; Has Reached a New High In Download Rankings In The Past 12 Months (+)
ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD: Parcel volume last week grew 21% yoy (+)
BABA/SHEIN: AliExpress launches new subsidies to attract woman’s apparel merchants (+/-)  


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:NTES/ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD/3690 HK/SHEIN

<ul>
<li>In Q423 JD Logistics booked 10% top-line growth &amp; solid margin improvement</li>
<li>We analyze the impacts of JD.com &amp; Deppon Logistics on JD Logistics' Q423</li>
<li>Given still-low profitability, JD Logistics does not appear cheap, in our view</li>
</ul>


In Q423 JD Logistics booked 10% top-line growth &amp; solid margin improvement
We analyze the impacts of JD.com &amp; Deppon Logistics on JD Logistics' Q423
Given still-low profitability, JD Logistics does not appear cheap, in our view


Analyzing the Roles Parent JD.com & Subsidiary Deppon Played in JD Logistics' Q423 Results

<ul>
<li>Industry ASP declined -15.5% Y/Y in January to just 8.36 CNY, a record low</li>
<li>Despite strong volume (+85% Y/Y) some firms have likely turned unprofitable</li>
<li>International parcel growth strong; SF still avoiding worst of domestic price wars</li>
</ul>


Industry ASP declined -15.5% Y/Y in January to just 8.36 CNY, a record low
Despite strong volume (+85% Y/Y) some firms have likely turned unprofitable
International parcel growth strong; SF still avoiding worst of domestic price wars


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Industry ASP Fell to Record Low Last Month | (February 2024)

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

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ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO US)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | ASPs Still Under Pressure | Weaker X-Border Volume? | (March 2024)

On a combined basis, January-February numbers show ground parcel ASPs still falling by over 10% Y/Y. YTD, we see a clear slowdown in X-border...

Tracking Traffic

The Three Biggest Surprises in J&T Global Express' Maiden Earnings Report

Stronger-than-expected China revenue, worsening performance of 'Other', and declining SE Asian margins are the three biggest surprises we see in...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:NTES/ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD/3690 HK/SHEIN

has reached a new high in download rankings, ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD saw a 21% yoy growth in parcel volume, and AliExpress is offering subsidies to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Analyzing the Roles Parent JD.com & Subsidiary Deppon Played in JD Logistics' Q423 Results

JD Logistics reported +10% top-line growth in Q423, and strong improvements in margins. In this insight we look at the dynamics between JD...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Industry ASP Fell to Record Low Last Month | (February 2024)

More operating days in January 2024 lifted parcel volume growth, but industry ASP declined to the lowest level on record. We believe at current...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | ASPs Still Under Pressure | Weaker X-Border Volume? | (March 2024)

On a combined basis, January-February numbers show ground parcel ASPs still falling by over 10% Y/Y. YTD, we see a clear slowdown in X-border...

Tracking Traffic

The Three Biggest Surprises in J&T Global Express' Maiden Earnings Report

Stronger-than-expected China revenue, worsening performance of 'Other', and declining SE Asian margins are the three biggest surprises we see in...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:NTES/ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD/3690 HK/SHEIN

​ has reached a new high in download rankings, ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD saw a 21% yoy growth in parcel volume, and AliExpress is offering subsidies to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Analyzing the Roles Parent JD.com & Subsidiary Deppon Played in JD Logistics' Q423 Results

JD Logistics reported +10% top-line growth in Q423, and strong improvements in margins. In this insight we look at the dynamics between JD...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Industry ASP Fell to Record Low Last Month | (February 2024)

More operating days in January 2024 lifted parcel volume growth, but industry ASP declined to the lowest level on record. We believe at current...

Tracking Traffic

has reached a new high in download rankings, ZTO/1519 HK/BABA/PDD saw a 21% yoy growth in parcel volume, and AliExpress is offering subsidies to...