Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The latest survey of Japanese e-commerce by the Ministry of Trade, Economy &amp; Industry (METI) is now out showing that the e-commerce channel continued to grow strongly in FY2019. The current health crisis is further fuelling the speed of growth beyond everyone’s expectations.</p><p>Online sales of goods alone rose to over ¥10 trillion and total e-commerce transactions hit ¥19.3 trillion.</p><p>Apparel and food remain the two largest categories online, but publishing saw the biggest growth in 2019 as suppliers finally accepted the inevitable consumer shift to electronic versions.</p><p>At 6.2%, EC penetration in Japan remains much lower than either the USA or UK, where the channel reportedly accounts for 9.9% and 20.7% of retail respectively. This is in part because Japan has as many stores as the US, a market with three times the population, making stores that much more accessible. The current crisis however has accelerated the shift to online, a worry for physical retailers of all kinds.</p><p><strong>EC remains on track to break 10% of merchandise sales by 2025 at the latest and, especially with the shift online over the past nine months, could even hit that target in the next three years.</strong></p>

The latest survey of Japanese e-commerce by the Ministry of Trade, Economy &amp; Industry (METI) is now out showing that the e-commerce channel continued to grow strongly in FY2019. The current health crisis is further fuelling the speed of growth beyond everyone’s expectations.Online sales of goods alone rose to over ¥10 trillion and total e-commerce transactions hit ¥19.3 trillion.Apparel and food remain the two largest categories online, but publishing saw the biggest growth in 2019 as suppliers finally accepted the inevitable consumer shift to electronic versions.At 6.2%, EC penetration in Japan remains much lower than either the USA or UK, where the channel reportedly accounts for 9.9% and 20.7% of retail respectively. This is in part because Japan has as many stores as the US, a market with three times the population, making stores that much more accessible. The current crisis however has accelerated the shift to online, a worry for physical retailers of all kinds.EC remains on track to break 10% of merchandise sales by 2025 at the latest and, especially with the shift online over the past nine months, could even hit that target in the next three years.

Japan E-Commerce Breaks ¥10 Trillion, Set for Major Boost This Year

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<p>Benefiting from investor demand for COVID-resistant stocks, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a> had an excellent run during the last six months, as share price increased more than 1,330% from the March 2020 low levels.</p><p>BASE was listed on 25th October 2019 at ¥1,300 per share - the higher end of the proposed price range and currently trades at ¥11,000 per share.</p><p>On 24<sup>th</sup> September 2020, the company’s board of directors resolved to raise around $125m via issuing 1.2m new shares to European and Asian institutional investors. The underwriters to this secondary offering are Daiwa Securities and Mizuho Securities. The book building period ends on 9<sup>th</sup> October 2020.</p><p>The company plans to use secondary listing proceeds on advertising, recruitment, M&amp;A and working capital purposes.</p><p>We feel this is an opportunistic move by BASE Inc to take full advantage of the currently inflated valuation multiples and therefore would avoid subscribing to the offer. Moreover, we would wait for a price reaction to the positive news flows such as BASE online store growth and consider arranging a short position at 20.0x consensus FY+2 EV/Sales – around ¥12,800 per share.</p>

Benefiting from investor demand for COVID-resistant stocks, BASE Inc (4477 JP) had an excellent run during the last six months, as share price increased more than 1,330% from the March 2020 low levels.BASE was listed on 25th October 2019 at ¥1,300 per share - the higher end of the proposed price range and currently trades at ¥11,000 per share.On 24th September 2020, the company’s board of directors resolved to raise around $125m via issuing 1.2m new shares to European and Asian institutional investors. The underwriters to this secondary offering are Daiwa Securities and Mizuho Securities. The book building period ends on 9th October 2020.The company plans to use secondary listing proceeds on advertising, recruitment, M&amp;A and working capital purposes.We feel this is an opportunistic move by BASE Inc to take full advantage of the currently inflated valuation multiples and therefore would avoid subscribing to the offer. Moreover, we would wait for a price reaction to the positive news flows such as BASE online store growth and consider arranging a short position at 20.0x consensus FY+2 EV/Sales – around ¥12,800 per share.

BASE Inc Raising $125m Via an Overseas Secondary Offer Targeting European and Asian Investors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>The life of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/line-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22772:1" rel="noopener">LINE Corp (3938 JP)</a> as a listed entity with a listed future is now entering its Zombie Twilight. The Tender Offer by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16029:1" rel="noopener">Naver Corp (035420 KS)</a> to buy out minorities has ended and we now move on to the next stage. </p><p>Today the results of the Tender Offer for LINE were <a href="https://d.line-scdn.net/stf/linecorp/en/ir/all/LINE_20200916_EN_3.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> and the Offerors managed to acquire a sum total of 31,234,670 shares leaving about 25,000,000 shares left over un-tendered (plus options and converts un-converted). That is 25,000,000 million shares worth of zombie shareholders who will roam the markets until the shares' final retirement after the EGM. </p><p>That is $1.25bn+ worth of zombies at the Tender Offer Price. </p><p>The now-zombies defended their boundary, keeping the shares above the ¥5380 Tender Offer Price line from late June until the day before the Tender Offer went ex-.</p><p> </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/159/330/original/Screenshot%202020-09-16%20at%204.03.18%20PM.png?1600243413" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="159330"></figure><p></p><p>The period between now and the delisting of LINE could be 4-5 months. It could take 5-6 months to get one's money, unless one is going after appraisal rights. Then it will take a little longer, unless it takes a lot longer. </p><p>This situation is different from the post-Tender trading situation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/familymart-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1" rel="noopener">FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP)</a> and one should not expect the squeeze which happened there. </p><div>
<hr>
<p>Previous insights related to this situation and the names involved are listed below.</p>
</div><div><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr><td colspan="3" style="width: 724px;"><h2>Relevant Insights</h2></td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;"><strong>Date</strong></td>
<td style="width: 97px;"><strong>Author</strong></td>
<td style="width: 463px;"><strong>Title</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="3" style="width: 724px;"><h3>About Cashless Payments</h3></td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">13 Mar 2019</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-causton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2415" rel="noopener">Michael Causton</a> </td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/loyalty-points-in-japan-more-loyalty-more-points-and-the-conduit-to-cashless-payments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:28547" rel="noopener">Loyalty Points In Japan: More Loyalty, More Points and the Conduit to Cashless Payments</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">2 Apr 2019</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio Kato, CFA</a> </td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mercari-why-mercari-is-likely-to-be-a-winner-in-the-cashless-wars" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:28946" rel="noopener">Mercari: Why Mercari Is Likely to Be a Winner in the Cashless Wars</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">28 Jun 2019</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/supun-walpola" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1650" rel="noopener">Supun Walpola</a> </td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/paying-with-paypay-a-deep-dive-into-yahoo-japan-s-mobile-payment-business" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30750" rel="noopener">Paying with PayPay: A Deep Dive into Yahoo! Japan’s Mobile Payment Business</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">6 Jan 2020</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-causton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2415" rel="noopener">Michael Causton</a> </td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lawson-and-kddi-join-forces-in-cashless-payments-war" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:35596" rel="noopener">Lawson and KDDI Join Forces in Cashless Payments War</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">24 Jan 2020</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-causton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2415" rel="noopener">Michael Causton</a> </td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mercari-merpay-acquisition-of-origami-pay-continues-cashless-consolidation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36051" rel="noopener">Mercari – Merpay Acquisition of Origami Pay Continues Cashless Consolidation</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">15 Feb 2020</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-causton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2415" rel="noopener">Michael Causton</a> </td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-payment-wars-ntt-docomo-and-merpay-origami-to-attempt-catch-up-with-paypay-and-rakuten" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36609" rel="noopener">Japan Payment Wars: NTT Docomo and Merpay/Origami to Attempt Catch up with PayPay and Rakuten</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">20 Mar 2020</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-causton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2415" rel="noopener">Michael Causton</a> </td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/some-resistance-to-cashless-payments-in-japan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37629" rel="noopener">Some Resistance to Cashless Payments in Japan</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">28 Apr 2020</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-causton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2415" rel="noopener">Michael Causton</a> </td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/z-holdings-and-yamato-create-fulfilment-service-for-all-to-rival-rakuten-and-amazon" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:38797" rel="noopener">Z Holdings and Yamato Create Fulfilment Service for All to Rival Rakuten and Amazon</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">29 Jul 2020</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/supun-walpola" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1650" rel="noopener">Supun Walpola</a> </td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/z-holdings-alt-data-paypay-mall-and-paypay-flea-market-continue-to-disappoint" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41671" rel="noopener">Z Holdings [Alt Data]: PayPay Mall and PayPay Flea Market Continue to Disappoint</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="3" style="width: 724px;"></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="3" style="width: 724px;"><h3>About This Deal</h3></td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">14 Nov 2019</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">Travis Lundy</td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/z-and-line-sitting-in-a-tree-m-e-r-g-i-n-g" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:34463" rel="noopener">Z and LINE, Sitting in a Tree... M.E.R.G.I.N... G...?</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">18 Nov 2019</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">Travis Lundy</td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/line-and-z-sitting-in-a-tree-m-e-r-g-i-n-g-and-a-tender-offer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:34560" rel="noopener">LINE and Z, Sitting in a Tree... M.E.R.G.I.N.G! And a Tender Offer!</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">26 Dec 2019</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">Travis Lundy</td>
<td style="width: 463px;"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/new-deal-for-line-a-lot-like-the-old-deal" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NEW Deal for LINE (A Lot Like the Old Deal)</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">6 July 2020</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">Travis Lundy</td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/market-is-pricing-a-line-bump-should-it" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40976" rel="noopener">Market Is Pricing a LINE Bump - Should It?</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">22 July 2020</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">Travis Lundy</td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/a-line-bump-the-other-argument-against" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41419" rel="noopener">A LINE Bump - The Other Argument Against</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">29 July 2020</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">Travis Lundy</td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/line-3938-this-is-not-the-kitchen-sink-you-are-looking-for" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41674" rel="noopener">LINE (3938) - This Is Not the Kitchen Sink You Are Looking For</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 122px;">3 August 2020</td>
<td style="width: 97px;">Travis Lundy</td>
<td style="width: 463px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-end-of-the-line-3938" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41828" rel="noopener">The End of the LINE (3938)</a> </td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div><div><p><em>In addition to the above insights, Michael Causton's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-zozo-revival-a-new-private-brand-of-many-names-category-expansion-merchants-return" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41520" rel="noopener">The Zozo Revival: A New Private Brand of Many Names, Category Expansion, Merchants Return</a> is worth a read to know more about Z Holdings going forward and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio Kato, CFA</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zozo-nice-results-but-it-s-just-a-covid-bump" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41718" rel="noopener">Zozo – Nice Results but It’s Just a COVID Bump</a> takes the view that results announced last week were less impressive than the headline numbers.</em></p></div>

The life of LINE Corp (3938 JP) as a listed entity with a listed future is now entering its Zombie Twilight. The Tender Offer by Softbank Corp (9434 JP) and Naver Corp (035420 KS) to buy out minorities has ended and we now move on to the next stage. Today the results of the Tender Offer for LINE were announced and the Offerors managed to acquire a sum total of 31,234,670 shares leaving about 25,000,000 shares left over un-tendered (plus options and converts un-converted). That is 25,000,000 million shares worth of zombie shareholders who will roam the markets until the shares' final retirement after the EGM. That is $1.25bn+ worth of zombies at the Tender Offer Price. The now-zombies defended their boundary, keeping the shares above the ¥5380 Tender Offer Price line from late June until the day before the Tender Offer went ex-. The period between now and the delisting of LINE could be 4-5 months. It could take 5-6 months to get one's money, unless one is going after appraisal rights. Then it will take a little longer, unless it takes a lot longer. This situation is different from the post-Tender trading situation of FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP) and one should not expect the squeeze which happened there. 

Previous insights related to this situation and the names involved are listed below.

Relevant Insights

Date
Author
Title

About Cashless Payments

13 Mar 2019

Michael Causton 

Loyalty Points In Japan: More Loyalty, More Points and the Conduit to Cashless Payments 


2 Apr 2019

Mio Kato, CFA 

Mercari: Why Mercari Is Likely to Be a Winner in the Cashless Wars 


28 Jun 2019

Supun Walpola 

Paying with PayPay: A Deep Dive into Yahoo! Japan’s Mobile Payment Business 


6 Jan 2020

Michael Causton 

Lawson and KDDI Join Forces in Cashless Payments War 


24 Jan 2020

Michael Causton 

Mercari – Merpay Acquisition of Origami Pay Continues Cashless Consolidation 


15 Feb 2020

Michael Causton 

Japan Payment Wars: NTT Docomo and Merpay/Origami to Attempt Catch up with PayPay and Rakuten 


20 Mar 2020

Michael Causton 

Some Resistance to Cashless Payments in Japan 


28 Apr 2020

Michael Causton 

Z Holdings and Yamato Create Fulfilment Service for All to Rival Rakuten and Amazon 


29 Jul 2020

Supun Walpola 

Z Holdings [Alt Data]: PayPay Mall and PayPay Flea Market Continue to Disappoint 


About This Deal

14 Nov 2019
Travis Lundy

Z and LINE, Sitting in a Tree... M.E.R.G.I.N... G...? 


18 Nov 2019
Travis Lundy

LINE and Z, Sitting in a Tree... M.E.R.G.I.N.G! And a Tender Offer! 


26 Dec 2019
Travis Lundy
NEW Deal for LINE (A Lot Like the Old Deal)


6 July 2020
Travis Lundy

Market Is Pricing a LINE Bump - Should It? 


22 July 2020
Travis Lundy

A LINE Bump - The Other Argument Against 


29 July 2020
Travis Lundy

LINE (3938) - This Is Not the Kitchen Sink You Are Looking For 


3 August 2020
Travis Lundy

The End of the LINE (3938) 

In addition to the above insights, Michael Causton's The Zozo Revival: A New Private Brand of Many Names, Category Expansion, Merchants Return is worth a read to know more about Z Holdings going forward and Mio Kato, CFA's Zozo – Nice Results but It’s Just a COVID Bump takes the view that results announced last week were less impressive than the headline numbers.

<p>Today after the close, and a few days earlier than expected, the Nikkei's “Index Business Office" which administers the Nikkei 225 Average and the other indices announced the Annual Review of the Nikkei 225 Average has resulted in one deletion, and one replacement. </p>
<p>The stock getting deleted is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-kayaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6971:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Kayaku (4272 JP)</a> and the stock being added is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a>. Softbank Corp is getting added with a Deemed Par Value of 50 yen per share as of the close of 30 September. </p>
<p>There will be a few other <em>technical</em> changes at the end of September to do with a few stock splits and reverse stock splits but they will have no effect on the index. </p>
<p>I have been surprised by the lack of aggressive shorting on Nippon Kayaku as it was the odds-on favorite to get the boot. The addition of Softbank Corp will surprise a few people but it may indicate an ongoing trend at the Nikkei to favor a certain kind of rebalance. </p>
<p>More below the fold.</p>

Today after the close, and a few days earlier than expected, the Nikkei's “Index Business Office" which administers the Nikkei 225 Average and the other indices announced the Annual Review of the Nikkei 225 Average has resulted in one deletion, and one replacement. 
The stock getting deleted is Nippon Kayaku (4272 JP) and the stock being added is Softbank Corp (9434 JP). Softbank Corp is getting added with a Deemed Par Value of 50 yen per share as of the close of 30 September. 
There will be a few other technical changes at the end of September to do with a few stock splits and reverse stock splits but they will have no effect on the index. 
I have been surprised by the lack of aggressive shorting on Nippon Kayaku as it was the odds-on favorite to get the boot. The addition of Softbank Corp will surprise a few people but it may indicate an ongoing trend at the Nikkei to favor a certain kind of rebalance. 
More below the fold.

The 2020 Nikkei 225 Rebalance: Nippon Kayaku OUT and Softbank Corp IN

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<p>Nikkei has just announced the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> as part of its periodic review. In a 'surprise', <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)</a> will be added to the index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-kayaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6971:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Kayaku (4272 JP)</a> will be deleted from the index.</p><p>The changes will be made prior to the open of the market on 1 October, so passive funds will trade at the closing auction on 30 September.</p><p>At between 25-26m shares to buy (2.2% of its real world float and less than 3 days of ADV to buy), the impact on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp 9434 JP)</a> will be minimal. The overhang of the block offering announced on 28 August should keep a lid on the stock for the time being.</p><p>The impact on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-kayaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6971:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Kayaku (4272 JP)</a> is expected to be much larger. The 25-26m shares to sell is over 13% of the shares outstanding and represents over 40 days of ADV and this could lead to a sharp move lower in the stock.</p><p>Surprisingly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/familymart-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:320:1" rel="noopener">FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP)</a> has not been deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>'s offer to take the company private. The FamilyMart deletion could be done in an adhoc review or announced after the implementation of the Share Consolidation and implemented along with the annual review. We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-enix-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15003:1" rel="noopener">Square Enix Holdings (9684 JP)</a> as the most likely replacement candidates.</p>

Nikkei has just announced the changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) as part of its periodic review. In a 'surprise', Softbank Corp (9434 JP) will be added to the index and Nippon Kayaku (4272 JP) will be deleted from the index.The changes will be made prior to the open of the market on 1 October, so passive funds will trade at the closing auction on 30 September.At between 25-26m shares to buy (2.2% of its real world float and less than 3 days of ADV to buy), the impact on Softbank Corp 9434 JP) will be minimal. The overhang of the block offering announced on 28 August should keep a lid on the stock for the time being.The impact on Nippon Kayaku (4272 JP) is expected to be much larger. The 25-26m shares to sell is over 13% of the shares outstanding and represents over 40 days of ADV and this could lead to a sharp move lower in the stock.Surprisingly, FamilyMart Co Ltd (8028 JP) has not been deleted from the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) following Itochu Corp (8001 JP)'s offer to take the company private. The FamilyMart deletion could be done in an adhoc review or announced after the implementation of the Share Consolidation and implemented along with the annual review. We see ZOZO Inc (3092 JP), Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP) and Square Enix Holdings (9684 JP) as the most likely replacement candidates.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Softbank Corp IN, Nippon Kayaku OUT

Japan

ZOZO Inc operates internet shopping sites for apparel.  The Company also provides communication services relating to apparel such as blogs by fashion moguls and internet chat room for users.

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ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)

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