Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Zozo managed a 7% gain in GTVs last year which meant it grew its share of the fashion market. </li>
<li>It now has more than 10 million active users and has laid down plans to reach ¥800 billion in GTVs in the medium term.</li>
<li>Zozo's momentum is clear and its targets look realistic. Shame about the performance of Z Holdings.</li>
</ul>


Zozo managed a 7% gain in GTVs last year which meant it grew its share of the fashion market. 
It now has more than 10 million active users and has laid down plans to reach ¥800 billion in GTVs in the medium term.
Zozo's momentum is clear and its targets look realistic. Shame about the performance of Z Holdings.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Nikkei has started a market consultation on amendments to the methodology of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> focusing on the stepwise addition of lower liquidity stocks and on technical listings.</li>
<li>Stocks that have relatively low ADTV compared to the expected index weight will be added at half the originally planned PAF with the full PAF implemented at the next review.</li>
<li>If the proposed changes are implemented, some of the potential inclusions in September will be added at half their PAF with the increase to full PAF coming in March 2024.</li>
</ul>


Nikkei has started a market consultation on amendments to the methodology of the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) focusing on the stepwise addition of lower liquidity stocks and on technical listings.
Stocks that have relatively low ADTV compared to the expected index weight will be added at half the originally planned PAF with the full PAF implemented at the next review.
If the proposed changes are implemented, some of the potential inclusions in September will be added at half their PAF with the increase to full PAF coming in March 2024.


Nikkei 225 Market Consultation: Stepwise Additions & Technical Listings

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>After the accelerated transition to digital channels during Covid, the fashion sector had a calmer year in 2022 although GTVs still grew around 10%. </li>
<li>Most retailers spent the time investing in more seamless and coherent omnichannel models, and in making the best use of stores and staff in online promotions.</li>
<li>This shift to omnichannel is also leading to changing merchandising, including pre-selling inventory, while others are turning their online stores into malls. </li>
</ul>


After the accelerated transition to digital channels during Covid, the fashion sector had a calmer year in 2022 although GTVs still grew around 10%. 
Most retailers spent the time investing in more seamless and coherent omnichannel models, and in making the best use of stores and staff in online promotions.
This shift to omnichannel is also leading to changing merchandising, including pre-selling inventory, while others are turning their online stores into malls. 


Japan's Fashion E-Commerce Evolving into Dynamic and Seamless Omnichannel, Winners Will Take All

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>With 3.5 months left in the dataset, the data is pretty close to settled. The interesting bits are elsewhere. There are three auto DELETEs and two auto ADDs. Maybe.</li>
<li>One auto-ADD is Toshiba, which may have a deal on it. That leaves two to add for sector balance. That could be Nitori (9843 JP) and Zozo (3092 JP).</li>
<li>Friday's move on Fast Retailing brings in the issue of the new capping function. That would be a different US$2bn selldown. Lots of gory details here. </li>
</ul>


With 3.5 months left in the dataset, the data is pretty close to settled. The interesting bits are elsewhere. There are three auto DELETEs and two auto ADDs. Maybe.
One auto-ADD is Toshiba, which may have a deal on it. That leaves two to add for sector balance. That could be Nitori (9843 JP) and Zozo (3092 JP).
Friday's move on Fast Retailing brings in the issue of the new capping function. That would be a different US$2bn selldown. Lots of gory details here. 


Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 Rebalance Gets Interestinger - Possible Fast Retailing Cap and Zozo Stretch

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> September rebalance ends end July. We highlight 3 potential inclusions and exclusions for the index.</li>
<li>There are a few alternate adds that are interesting and their inclusion in the index could move things around a fair bit.</li>
<li>Due to the large size difference between the potential adds/deletes, there will be a large funding trade with passive trackers needing to sell over 0.5x ADV on many index constituents.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ends end July. We highlight 3 potential inclusions and exclusions for the index.
There are a few alternate adds that are interesting and their inclusion in the index could move things around a fair bit.
Due to the large size difference between the potential adds/deletes, there will be a large funding trade with passive trackers needing to sell over 0.5x ADV on many index constituents.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2023): Potential Changes & Dark Horses

Japan

ZOZO Inc operates internet shopping sites for apparel.  The Company also provides communication services relating to apparel such as blogs by fashion moguls and internet chat room for users.

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ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)

Nikkei 225 Market Consultation: Stepwise Additions & Technical Listings

Nikkei has started a consultation on stepwise adds to the index & on treatment of technical listings. The stepwise inclusion could result in...

Brian Freitas

Japan's Fashion E-Commerce Evolving into Dynamic and Seamless Omnichannel, Winners Will Take All

Japan's fashion e-commerce sector offers major growth stories among both online malls and physical retailers making a successful transition to...

Michael Causton

Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 Rebalance Gets Interestinger - Possible Fast Retailing Cap and Zozo Stretch

The Sep 2023 Nikkei 225 Review is changing shape. Toshiba deal is announced, which pushes two of three ADDs outside the top 75 - sector balance...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2023): Potential Changes & Dark Horses

There could be 3 changes to the NKY in Sep. Lasertec, ZOZO, Nitori could replace MatsuiSec, MitsuiE&S, NipponSheetGlass. There are other stocks...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Zozo Consolidates Market Share

Zozo is on a roll, with strong sales in new categories and segments and clear plans to increase GTVs by ¥200 billion. There are few barriers to...

Michael Causton

Nikkei 225 Market Consultation: Stepwise Additions & Technical Listings

Nikkei has started a consultation on stepwise adds to the index & on treatment of technical listings. The stepwise inclusion could result in...

Brian Freitas

Japan's Fashion E-Commerce Evolving into Dynamic and Seamless Omnichannel, Winners Will Take All

Japan's fashion e-commerce sector offers major growth stories among both online malls and physical retailers making a successful transition to...

Michael Causton

Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 Rebalance Gets Interestinger - Possible Fast Retailing Cap and Zozo Stretch

The Sep 2023 Nikkei 225 Review is changing shape. Toshiba deal is announced, which pushes two of three ADDs outside the top 75 - sector balance...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2023): Potential Changes & Dark Horses

There could be 3 changes to the NKY in Sep. Lasertec, ZOZO, Nitori could replace MatsuiSec, MitsuiE&S, NipponSheetGlass. There are other stocks...

Brian Freitas