Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Zhongsheng share price surged by 26% on Friday as investors warms up to China, and accumulate beaten down consumer stocks. Zhongsheng was the top performing HSI stock.  </li>
<li>Businesswise, nothing has changed and consensus earnings for Zhongsheng remain largely unchanged. It is all about positive re-rating of the Chinese markets. </li>
<li>Our fair value is raised to HKD16-20.5, based on historical mean PE of 9.4x and ceiling of 12x. Zhongsheng is still cheap and have further upside potential in our view. </li>
</ul>


Zhongsheng share price surged by 26% on Friday as investors warms up to China, and accumulate beaten down consumer stocks. Zhongsheng was the top performing HSI stock.  
Businesswise, nothing has changed and consensus earnings for Zhongsheng remain largely unchanged. It is all about positive re-rating of the Chinese markets. 
Our fair value is raised to HKD16-20.5, based on historical mean PE of 9.4x and ceiling of 12x. Zhongsheng is still cheap and have further upside potential in our view. 


Zhongsheng Group Holdings (881 HK, BUY, TP:HKD16.0-20.5): Long Overdue PoP, Still More Valuation Gap

Analyst

Steve

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-meidong-auto-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10795:1" rel="noopener">China MeiDong Auto (1268 HK)</a> announced a profit warning this morning, expecting a 90% decline in net profit for 1H23.  </li>
<li>Luxury auto dealer in China is facing major uncertainties in its business model, with no visibility in the near term.  </li>
<li>However, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> currently employs the best long-term strategy amidst industry transformation.  Suggest to keep a close eye on the name. </li>
</ul>



China MeiDong Auto (1268 HK) announced a profit warning this morning, expecting a 90% decline in net profit for 1H23.  
Luxury auto dealer in China is facing major uncertainties in its business model, with no visibility in the near term.  
However, Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) currently employs the best long-term strategy amidst industry transformation.  Suggest to keep a close eye on the name. 


Zhongsheng Group (881 HK):  Could Be A Winner In The Long Run, But No Short-Term Visibility

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-meidong-auto-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10795:1" rel="noopener">China MeiDong Auto (1268 HK)</a> presents an excellent investment opportunity, trading at 13.3x/8.1x FY22/23e, post street estimate revisions downwards with a dividend yield of 6.0%/10% (assuming an 80% payout). </li>
<li>China MeiDong Auto (1268 HK) 's integration of Starchase is progressing better than we expected, with metrics on inventory dramatically improving. We believe the management will focus on aftersales now. </li>
<li>The company will join the EV bandwagon by collaborating on aftersales with players having operational (not financial) difficulties performing this service, presenting a good opportunity for the company. </li>
</ul>



China MeiDong Auto (1268 HK) presents an excellent investment opportunity, trading at 13.3x/8.1x FY22/23e, post street estimate revisions downwards with a dividend yield of 6.0%/10% (assuming an 80% payout). 
China MeiDong Auto (1268 HK) 's integration of Starchase is progressing better than we expected, with metrics on inventory dramatically improving. We believe the management will focus on aftersales now. 
The company will join the EV bandwagon by collaborating on aftersales with players having operational (not financial) difficulties performing this service, presenting a good opportunity for the company. 


Meidong: Insights from Call with the Management for H1 2022

<ul>
<li>Historical valuation affirms that Zhongzheng is the cheapest it has been in the past 10 years </li>
<li>Chart analysis is to compliment our recent report <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zhongsheng-group-holdings-881-hk-buy-tp-hkd12-5-a-contrarian-play" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:157671" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group Holdings (881 HK, BUY, TP:HKD12.5): A Contrarian Play</a> published yesterday</li>
<li>Our TP of HKD12.5 is based on FY25 PE of 5x. This implies an <strong>UPSIDE POTENTIAL</strong> of<strong> 33%</strong>. It also delivers a dividend yield of ~9% at current prices. </li>
</ul>


Historical valuation affirms that Zhongzheng is the cheapest it has been in the past 10 years 
Chart analysis is to compliment our recent report Zhongsheng Group Holdings (881 HK, BUY, TP:HKD12.5): A Contrarian Play published yesterday
Our TP of HKD12.5 is based on FY25 PE of 5x. This implies an UPSIDE POTENTIAL of 33%. It also delivers a dividend yield of ~9% at current prices. 


Zhongsheng Group Holdings (881 HK, BUY, TP:HKD12.5): Chart Analysis Affirms Zhongsheng Is Too Cheap

<ul>
<li>1H24 results were below expectations, with profits halved YoY. Irrational competition with overzealous discounts, and general decline in preference of traditional luxury cars for NEVs is hurting Zhongzheng (ZS)</li>
<li>Signs of bottoming as industry are trying to stop the discounting madness and instill some level of rationality</li>
<li>ZS is trading at 0.47x book, its cash = MCAP, and FY25 PE of 3.7x. Ridiculously cheap for a profitable and positive FCF churning company.  </li>
</ul>


1H24 results were below expectations, with profits halved YoY. Irrational competition with overzealous discounts, and general decline in preference of traditional luxury cars for NEVs is hurting Zhongzheng (ZS)
Signs of bottoming as industry are trying to stop the discounting madness and instill some level of rationality
ZS is trading at 0.47x book, its cash = MCAP, and FY25 PE of 3.7x. Ridiculously cheap for a profitable and positive FCF churning company.  


Zhongsheng Group Holdings (881 HK, BUY, TP:HKD12.5): A Contrarian Play

China

Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd. retails automobiles.  The Company imports and retails primarily luxury and mid- to high-end automobile brands.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)

Zhongsheng Group Holdings (881 HK, BUY, TP:HKD16.0-20.5): Long Overdue PoP, Still More Valuation Gap

Zhongsheng share price has finally popped after 3-year underperformance. The stock remains cheap based on historical valuation ranges, and we think...

Mohshin Aziz