Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-meidong-auto-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10795:1" rel="noopener">China MeiDong Auto (1268 HK)</a> presents an excellent investment opportunity, trading at 13.3x/8.1x FY22/23e, post street estimate revisions downwards with a dividend yield of 6.0%/10% (assuming an 80% payout). </li>
<li>China MeiDong Auto (1268 HK) 's integration of Starchase is progressing better than we expected, with metrics on inventory dramatically improving. We believe the management will focus on aftersales now. </li>
<li>The company will join the EV bandwagon by collaborating on aftersales with players having operational (not financial) difficulties performing this service, presenting a good opportunity for the company. </li>
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China MeiDong Auto (1268 HK) presents an excellent investment opportunity, trading at 13.3x/8.1x FY22/23e, post street estimate revisions downwards with a dividend yield of 6.0%/10% (assuming an 80% payout). 
China MeiDong Auto (1268 HK) 's integration of Starchase is progressing better than we expected, with metrics on inventory dramatically improving. We believe the management will focus on aftersales now. 
The company will join the EV bandwagon by collaborating on aftersales with players having operational (not financial) difficulties performing this service, presenting a good opportunity for the company. 


Meidong: Insights from Call with the Management for H1 2022

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Maintain BUY. Despite strong headwinds that dealers faced, we still project Meidong’s 1H24 net profit to be positive with subsidies from Porsche and Lexus.</li><li>We expect industrywide headwinds to continue in 2H24 but we believe investors could turn a bit more positive on Meidong’s FY25 outlook given removal of the convertible bond (CB) burden and a new NEV model cycle for BMW.</li><li>We project 1H24E net profit to be RMB43mn assuming no significant impairment. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain BUY. Despite strong headwinds that dealers faced, we still project Meidong’s 1H24 net profit to be positive with subsidies from Porsche and Lexus.We expect industrywide headwinds to continue in 2H24 but we believe investors could turn a bit more positive on Meidong’s FY25 outlook given removal of the convertible bond (CB) burden and a new NEV model cycle for BMW.We project 1H24E net profit to be RMB43mn assuming no significant impairment. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Meidong Auto (1268 HK) - We Expect 1H24 to Be Still Profitable

<ul><li>Maintain BUY. We estimate that Meidong’s net profit excluding impairment and withholding tax impact in 2H23E could be a similar level to that in 1H23, as the higher portion of after-sales service profit and cost cuts could offset the HoH decline for new-car GPM.</li><li>However, we are of the view that impairment for goodwill and/or intangible assets is likely in 2H23E.</li><li>We project FY24E net profit to be RMB371mn, as Porsche’s new-car GPM is likely to improve from 2Q24E. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain BUY. We estimate that Meidong’s net profit excluding impairment and withholding tax impact in 2H23E could be a similar level to that in 1H23, as the higher portion of after-sales service profit and cost cuts could offset the HoH decline for new-car GPM.However, we are of the view that impairment for goodwill and/or intangible assets is likely in 2H23E.We project FY24E net profit to be RMB371mn, as Porsche’s new-car GPM is likely to improve from 2Q24E. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Meidong Auto (1268 HK) – The Terrible 2023 Is Behind Us

Analyst

Steve

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-meidong-auto-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10795:1" rel="noopener">China MeiDong Auto (1268 HK)</a> announced a profit warning this morning, expecting a 90% decline in net profit for 1H23.  </li>
<li>Luxury auto dealer in China is facing major uncertainties in its business model, with no visibility in the near term.  </li>
<li>However, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> currently employs the best long-term strategy amidst industry transformation.  Suggest to keep a close eye on the name. </li>
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China MeiDong Auto (1268 HK) announced a profit warning this morning, expecting a 90% decline in net profit for 1H23.  
Luxury auto dealer in China is facing major uncertainties in its business model, with no visibility in the near term.  
However, Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) currently employs the best long-term strategy amidst industry transformation.  Suggest to keep a close eye on the name. 


Zhongsheng Group (881 HK):  Could Be A Winner In The Long Run, But No Short-Term Visibility

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 1% YoY in first four months of 2023, 2% higher than our forecast made in Dec 2022.</li><li>Wholesale volume also rose 7% YoY YTD, 3% higher than our prior forecast, largely due to doubled PV exports in the first four months of 2023.</li><li>Automakers in China started to cut inventories in Apr 2023, as we had expected.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 1% YoY in first four months of 2023, 2% higher than our forecast made in Dec 2022.Wholesale volume also rose 7% YoY YTD, 3% higher than our prior forecast, largely due to doubled PV exports in the first four months of 2023.Automakers in China started to cut inventories in Apr 2023, as we had expected.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Mixed picture ahead as inventory risk lingers

China

China Meidong Auto Holdings Limited is an automobile dealership and maintenance group in China.

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China MeiDong Auto (1268 HK)

Meidong: Insights from Call with the Management for H1 2022

China MeiDong Auto presents an excellent investment opportunity, trading at 13.3x/8.1x FY22/23e, post street estimate revisions downwards with a...

Sameer Taneja

Meidong Auto (1268 HK) - We Expect 1H24 to Be Still Profitable

Maintain BUY. Despite strong headwinds that dealers faced, we still project Meidong’s 1H24 net profit to be positive with subsidies from Porsche...

CMB International