Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>PDD’s market cap has exceeded Alibaba’s due to PDD’s overseas performance and price sensitive consumers.</li>
<li>Great Wall Motor plans to enter eight countries in Europe to bypass the investigation on Chinese export subsidies.</li>
<li>ByteDance plans to close its game subsidy and, 2,000 employees may lose their jobs.</li>
</ul>


PDD’s market cap has exceeded Alibaba’s due to PDD’s overseas performance and price sensitive consumers.
Great Wall Motor plans to enter eight countries in Europe to bypass the investigation on Chinese export subsidies.
ByteDance plans to close its game subsidy and, 2,000 employees may lose their jobs.


China Consumption Weekly (4 Dec 2023): PDD, Alibaba, AliHealth, Great Wall Motor, ByteDance

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Zhihu delivered 2Q23 results with in-line rev and upbeat margin.</li><li>We forecast 3Q23E rev +12% YoY (in line with consensus), with resilient membership and strong vocational training.</li><li>Membership would see sequential growth in 3Q23E (+42% YoY), backed by richer content and cooperation with Huawei. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Zhihu delivered 2Q23 results with in-line rev and upbeat margin.We forecast 3Q23E rev +12% YoY (in line with consensus), with resilient membership and strong vocational training.Membership would see sequential growth in 3Q23E (+42% YoY), backed by richer content and cooperation with Huawei. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Zhihu (ZH US) – Strong vocational training with loss narrowing

<ul><li>Zhihu delivered upbeat 1Q23 results (rev +34% YoY, 4% above consensus), with solid membership (+105% YoY) &amp; vocational training (+171% YoY) and narrowing loss.</li><li>We forecast 2Q23E rev +24% YoY, in which strong membership and vocational training would continue. Its newly-launched app of Yanyan &lt;盐言 故事&gt; would bring further upside to membership.</li><li>Marketing services saw a mild recovery from 3C and ecommerce verticals in 2Q23E, and 2H23E ads might see positive growth. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Zhihu delivered upbeat 1Q23 results (rev +34% YoY, 4% above consensus), with solid membership (+105% YoY) &amp; vocational training (+171% YoY) and narrowing loss.We forecast 2Q23E rev +24% YoY, in which strong membership and vocational training would continue. Its newly-launched app of Yanyan &lt;盐言 故事&gt; would bring further upside to membership.Marketing services saw a mild recovery from 3C and ecommerce verticals in 2Q23E, and 2H23E ads might see positive growth. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Zhihu (ZH US) – Positive OCF for the First Time

<ul><li>Despite macro challenges and epidemic resurgence, Zhihu delivered better-thanfeared 4Q22 results, with strong membership &amp; vocational training and narrowing loss.</li><li>We expect Zhihu to see rev reacceleration from 1Q23E (forecasting +28% YoY), backed by: 1) resilient membership; 2) strong vocational training to continue (forecasting +140% YoY); and 3) mild ads recovery with China’s reopening.</li><li>We turn more bullish on vocational training potential, with enriched products matrix and course offerings.v</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Despite macro challenges and epidemic resurgence, Zhihu delivered better-thanfeared 4Q22 results, with strong membership &amp; vocational training and narrowing loss.We expect Zhihu to see rev reacceleration from 1Q23E (forecasting +28% YoY), backed by: 1) resilient membership; 2) strong vocational training to continue (forecasting +140% YoY); and 3) mild ads recovery with China’s reopening.We turn more bullish on vocational training potential, with enriched products matrix and course offerings.vContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Zhihu (ZH US) – Vocational training & AIGC as LT driver

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>As 2022 comes to an end, we revisit our IPO calls over the last 12-months and how these stocks have performed to assess the effectiveness of our calls.</li>
<li>We made explicit buy/sell calls on 12 IPOs during this period with a hit-rate of 83.3% with Grab, GoTo, Cloud Music, SenseTime and Leapmotor IPOs making the highest returns.</li>
<li>We also wrote on several other IPOs during this period, however, those IPOs have not received approval yet.</li>
</ul>


As 2022 comes to an end, we revisit our IPO calls over the last 12-months and how these stocks have performed to assess the effectiveness of our calls.
We made explicit buy/sell calls on 12 IPOs during this period with a hit-rate of 83.3% with Grab, GoTo, Cloud Music, SenseTime and Leapmotor IPOs making the highest returns.
We also wrote on several other IPOs during this period, however, those IPOs have not received approval yet.


China

Zhihu Inc. operates as an online share knowledge community. The Company provides a socialized website for questions and answers which enables users to obtain information through questions that provoke the opinions and views from answerers as individuals. Zhihu conducts businesses in China.

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Zhihu Technology (ZH US)

China Consumption Weekly (4 Dec 2023): PDD, Alibaba, AliHealth, Great Wall Motor, ByteDance

PDD’s market cap has exceeded Alibaba’s. Great Wall Motor plans to enter eight countries in Europe. ByteDance plans to close its game subsidy.

Ming Lu

Zhihu (ZH US) – Strong vocational training with loss narrowing

Zhihu delivered 2Q23 results with in-line rev and upbeat margin. We forecast 3Q23E rev +12% YoY (in line with consensus), with resilient membership...

CMB International

Zhihu (ZH US) – Positive OCF for the First Time

Zhihu delivered upbeat 1Q23 results (rev +34% YoY, 4% above consensus), with solid membership (+105% YoY) & vocational training (+171% YoY) and...

CMB International

Zhihu (ZH US) – Vocational training & AIGC as LT driver

Despite macro challenges and epidemic resurgence, Zhihu delivered better-thanfeared 4Q22 results, with strong membership & vocational training and...

CMB International

Our IPO Calls for 2022

As 2022 comes to an end, we revisit our IPO calls for 2022 and assess the performance of these calls which had a hit rate of 83.3%. Some of the...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

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