Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With 1 trading day left in the review period, we forecast 10 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinext-price-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25483:1" rel="noopener">Chinext Price Index (SZ399006 INDEX)</a> and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in June.</li>
<li>Passive trackers are estimated to trade around +/-0.5 days ADV on most of the potential adds/deletes, though there are some deletes that will have over 1 day ADV to sell.</li>
<li>The potential inclusion to one or both indices have outperformed the potential deletes by a huge margin in the last month. We'd be inclined to trim positions.</li>
</ul>


With 1 trading day left in the review period, we forecast 10 changes for the Chinext Price Index (SZ399006 INDEX) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in June.
Passive trackers are estimated to trade around +/-0.5 days ADV on most of the potential adds/deletes, though there are some deletes that will have over 1 day ADV to sell.
The potential inclusion to one or both indices have outperformed the potential deletes by a huge margin in the last month. We'd be inclined to trim positions.


ChiNext/​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Outperformance Maintained

<ul>
<li>Three quarters of the way through the review period, we forecast 10 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinext-price-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25483:1" rel="noopener">Chinext Price Index (SZ399006 INDEX)</a> and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in June.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy +/-0.5 days of ADV for most inclusions and exclusions from the indices. On average, the impact on the potential deletions is higher.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last six months, and there has been a sharp widening of the gap over the last few weeks.</li>
</ul>


Three quarters of the way through the review period, we forecast 10 changes for the Chinext Price Index (SZ399006 INDEX) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in June.
Passive trackers will need to buy +/-0.5 days of ADV for most inclusions and exclusions from the indices. On average, the impact on the potential deletions is higher.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last six months, and there has been a sharp widening of the gap over the last few weeks.


ChiNext/​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Overlapping Stocks & Recent Outperformance

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Tianneng Power International / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In January 2021, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianneng-power-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18978:1" rel="noopener">Tianneng Power (819 HK)</a></strong>'s (TPI) battery unit <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianneng-battery-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33458:1" rel="noopener">Tianneng Battery (688819 CH)</a></strong> (TBG) was listed on China's Star Market, as discussed in <a href="https://skr.ma/TcCjv" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em>Tianneng: Star Market Battery Spin-Off Priced</em>. </a>
</li>
<li>TBG is now proposing the issuance of GDRs, accounting for 10% of existing shares out, to be listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange.  </li>
<li>A circular has been issued and TPI shareholders go to the vote on the 31 January. TPI currently holds 86.53% in TBG worth &gt;300% of its market cap.</li>
</ul>


In January 2021, Tianneng Power (819 HK)'s (TPI) battery unit Tianneng Battery (688819 CH) (TBG) was listed on China's Star Market, as discussed in Tianneng: Star Market Battery Spin-Off Priced. 

TBG is now proposing the issuance of GDRs, accounting for 10% of existing shares out, to be listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange.  
A circular has been issued and TPI shareholders go to the vote on the 31 January. TPI currently holds 86.53% in TBG worth &gt;300% of its market cap.


Tianneng (819 HK): EV Battery Play Seeks Swiss Listing

<div>
<p>After first <a href="http://www3.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/SEHK/2018/1109/LTN201811091011.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcing</a> the possible spin-off and separate listing of Tianneng Battery Group ("TBG") on the 9 November 2018, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianneng-power-intl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18978:1" rel="noopener">Tianneng Power Intl (819 HK)</a> ("TPI") announced on the 15 December that the proposed A-share listing on the Star Board had been <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/1215/2020121501202.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">approved</a> by the CSRC.</p>
<p>An Offer Price of RMB41.79/share has now been <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0103/2021010300069.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a>. That is 36% higher than the Indicative Offer Price of RMB30.65 flagged in the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2019/0624/ltn201906241058.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">June 2019 prospectus</a>. Listing is expected to take place between mid-late Jan, according to my conversation with TPI's IR. </p>
<p>TPI is up 204% in the past year and 35% since the CSRC approval. Today's relatively lacklustre share price response to TBG's pricing would indicate TPI's pricing is full. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
</div>


After first announcing the possible spin-off and separate listing of Tianneng Battery Group ("TBG") on the 9 November 2018, Tianneng Power Intl (819 HK) ("TPI") announced on the 15 December that the proposed A-share listing on the Star Board had been approved by the CSRC.
An Offer Price of RMB41.79/share has now been announced. That is 36% higher than the Indicative Offer Price of RMB30.65 flagged in the June 2019 prospectus. Listing is expected to take place between mid-late Jan, according to my conversation with TPI's IR. 
TPI is up 204% in the past year and 35% since the CSRC approval. Today's relatively lacklustre share price response to TBG's pricing would indicate TPI's pricing is full. 


More below the fold.


Tianneng (819 HK): Star Market Battery Spin-Off Priced

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p>Broadly speaking, RS for MSCI EM is currently exhibiting some mild deterioration vs. MSCI EAFE following four months of clear outperformance. Nonetheless, the MSCI EM index is bottoming and remains attractive from a price perspective.  In today's report we offer a technical appraisal of major EM markets, and offer a host of technically attractivec bottoms-up stock ideas across the EM universe.</p>

Broadly speaking, RS for MSCI EM is currently exhibiting some mild deterioration vs. MSCI EAFE following four months of clear outperformance. Nonetheless, the MSCI EM index is bottoming and remains attractive from a price perspective.  In today's report we offer a technical appraisal of major EM markets, and offer a host of technically attractivec bottoms-up stock ideas across the EM universe.

EM Equity Strategy: Cyclicals Leading, China Surging

China

Zhejiang Narada Power Source Co.,Ltd. develops, produces and sells chemical power and new energy storage products.  The Company's products include fully sealed batteries, fuel cell, lithium-ion batteries, nickel-metal hydride batteries, solar cells, environmentally friendly batteries, and communications network power systems.

Zhejiang Narada Power Source Co, Ltd. (300068 CH)

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Zhejiang Narada Power Source Co, Ltd. (300068 CH)

ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Outperformance Maintained

We forecast 10 changes for the Chinext and 5 for the Chinext50. Impact is not large but these are liquid stocks that are moving. The potential adds...

Brian Freitas

ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Overlapping Stocks & Recent Outperformance

We forecast 10 changes to the ChiNext & 5 changes to the ChiNext50 in June. There are a few overlapping stocks & the potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

Tianneng (819 HK): EV Battery Play Seeks Swiss Listing

TBG is seeking a GDR listing in Zurich. The holding in TBG accounts for 307% of TPI's market cap. TPI is mispriced. But it may simply remain...

David Blennerhassett

Tianneng (819 HK): Star Market Battery Spin-Off Priced

In my prior insight, I recommended buying TPI on the expectation it retests its July high. It achieved that today. If you were already in, I'd be...

David Blennerhassett

EM Equity Strategy: Cyclicals Leading, China Surging

Broadly speaking, RS for MSCI EM is currently exhibiting some mild deterioration vs. MSCI EAFE following four months of clear outperformance....

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ChiNext/​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Outperformance Maintained

We forecast 10 changes for the Chinext and 5 for the Chinext50. Impact is not large but these are liquid stocks that are moving. The potential adds...

Brian Freitas

ChiNext/​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Overlapping Stocks & Recent Outperformance

We forecast 10 changes to the ChiNext & 5 changes to the ChiNext50 in June. There are a few overlapping stocks & the potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

Tianneng (819 HK): EV Battery Play Seeks Swiss Listing

TBG is seeking a GDR listing in Zurich. The holding in TBG accounts for 307% of TPI's market cap. TPI is mispriced. But it may simply remain...

David Blennerhassett

Tianneng (819 HK): Star Market Battery Spin-Off Priced

In my prior insight, I recommended buying TPI on the expectation it retests its July high. It achieved that today. If you were already in, I'd be...

David Blennerhassett

EM Equity Strategy: Cyclicals Leading, China Surging

Broadly speaking, RS for MSCI EM is currently exhibiting some mild deterioration vs. MSCI EAFE following four months of clear outperformance....

Vermilion Research

ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Outperformance Maintained

ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Overlapping Stocks & Recent Outperformance