Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>The reference period is for the December 2024 index rebal event is now complete. In this insight, we have presented our final list of expected ADDs and DELs.</li>
<li><em>While our SSE 50 expected ADDs/DELs list remains unchanged, there have been multiple last-minute changes to our SSE 180 expected ADDs/DELs list.</em></li>
</ul>


SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
The reference period is for the December 2024 index rebal event is now complete. In this insight, we have presented our final list of expected ADDs and DELs.
While our SSE 50 expected ADDs/DELs list remains unchanged, there have been multiple last-minute changes to our SSE 180 expected ADDs/DELs list.


Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 24: Multiple Changes to Expectations; ~US$2.3bn Collective Flows

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. / Equity Bottom-Up

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.

<ul>
<li>The National Health Commission and eight other departments issued “<em>Opinions on strengthening the capacity building of critical care medical services</em>”. New policy catalysts in the medical device sector arrives.</li>
<li>Current valuations of weight-loss drug companies have “large bubble”, which have basically priced in all the potential of GLP-1s even based on optimistic assumptions. We advise investors to be rational.</li>
<li>The price of core raw materials is showing a continuous upward trend, which will inevitably cause certain difficulties for Pientzehuang’s performance growth in 2024. Valuation has more downside ahead.</li>
</ul>


The National Health Commission and eight other departments issued “Opinions on strengthening the capacity building of critical care medical services”. New policy catalysts in the medical device sector arrives.
Current valuations of weight-loss drug companies have “large bubble”, which have basically priced in all the potential of GLP-1s even based on optimistic assumptions. We advise investors to be rational.
The price of core raw materials is showing a continuous upward trend, which will inevitably cause certain difficulties for Pientzehuang’s performance growth in 2024. Valuation has more downside ahead.


China Healthcare Weekly (May12)-Policy Catalyst in Medical Device, GLP-1 Overvaluation, Pientzehuang

<ul>
<li>Pientzehuang's 2023 results were well below expectations. The performance in 23Q4 was terrible. 2024 performance would continue to be under pressure, without any reversal signals to be seen.</li>
<li>In the process of China's de-financialization, growth potential of assets with strong financial attributes would weaken.Pientzehuang’s ability to raise prices won’t be as strong as rigid-demands such as telecommunications tariffs.</li>
<li>Pientzehuang’s stock price performance doesn’t follow traditional TCM companies.It’s not surprising if Pientzehuang’s valuation drops to PE of 15x or even lower. We recommend investors not to rush to bottom-fish.</li>
</ul>


Pientzehuang's 2023 results were well below expectations. The performance in 23Q4 was terrible. 2024 performance would continue to be under pressure, without any reversal signals to be seen.
In the process of China's de-financialization, growth potential of assets with strong financial attributes would weaken.Pientzehuang’s ability to raise prices won’t be as strong as rigid-demands such as telecommunications tariffs.
Pientzehuang’s stock price performance doesn’t follow traditional TCM companies.It’s not surprising if Pientzehuang’s valuation drops to PE of 15x or even lower. We recommend investors not to rush to bottom-fish.


Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical (600436.CH) 2023 Results - Get Ready for More Downside Ahead

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Cambricon Technologies  Lt / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With over 95% of the review period complete, 4 non-constituents are in inclusion zone and 6 constituents are in deletion zone.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 6.5% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 11.95bn (US$1.7bn). Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.</li>
<li>The potential adds have continued to outperform the potential deletes. There has been a big jump in the last few weeks as markets have rallied. Trim positions into strength.</li>
</ul>


With over 95% of the review period complete, 4 non-constituents are in inclusion zone and 6 constituents are in deletion zone.
We estimate one-way turnover of 6.5% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 11.95bn (US$1.7bn). Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.
The potential adds have continued to outperform the potential deletes. There has been a big jump in the last few weeks as markets have rallied. Trim positions into strength.


SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Inclusions Continue to Outperform; Trim into Strength

<ul>
<li>SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>While our SSE 50 expected ADDs/DELs list remains unchanged, there have been multiple changes to our SSE 180 expected ADDs/DELs list.</li>
</ul>


SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the December 2024 index rebal event.
While our SSE 50 expected ADDs/DELs list remains unchanged, there have been multiple changes to our SSE 180 expected ADDs/DELs list.


Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 24: Multiple Changes to Expectations; US$2.2bn One-Way

China

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets Chinese traditional medicines, including Pientzehuang, Pientzehuang capsules, Pientzehuang lozenge, cough syrup, and other related products.

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (600436 CH)

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Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (600436 CH)

Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 24: Multiple Changes to Expectations; ~US$2.3bn Collective Flows

We estimate SSE 50 one-way flow to be US$1.98bn and SSE 180 one-way flow to be US$286mn during the December 2024 index rebal event.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

China Healthcare Weekly (May12)-Policy Catalyst in Medical Device, GLP-1 Overvaluation, Pientzehuang

New policy catalysts in medical device sector arrives.Current valuation of weight-loss drug companies have “big bubble”.Due to China's de...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical (600436.CH) 2023 Results - Get Ready for More Downside Ahead

China's de-financialization process would change the investment logic of companies/products with strong financial attributes.Their growth potential...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Inclusions Continue to Outperform; Trim into Strength

There could be 5 changes in Dec. Estimate 1-way turnover is 6.5% leading to a one-way trade of CNY11.95bn (US$1.7bn). The potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 24: Multiple Changes to Expectations; US$2.2bn One-Way

On average, the SSE 50 expected ADDs/DELs have ~3x ADV to trade. We expect US$1.9bn one-way flows for SSE 50 and US$288mn one-way flows for SSE 180...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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