Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted (capped) market-value-weighted index composed of 400 constituents.</li>
<li>A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.</li>
<li>Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to be announced in early August 2023 based on trading data as of end-June 2023.</li>
</ul>


The JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted (capped) market-value-weighted index composed of 400 constituents.
A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.
Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to be announced in early August 2023 based on trading data as of end-June 2023.


Quiddity Leaderboard JPX-Nikkei 400: Final Predictions for August 2023

<ul>
<li>The JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted (capped) market-value-weighted index composed of 400 constituents.</li>
<li>A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.</li>
<li>Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to be announced in early August 2023 based on trading data as of end-May 2023.</li>
</ul>


The JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted (capped) market-value-weighted index composed of 400 constituents.
A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.
Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to be announced in early August 2023 based on trading data as of end-May 2023.


Quiddity Leaderboard JPX-Nikkei 400: End-May 2023

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The share price has declined by 15% from its March high, perhaps on misplaced concerns about its HTM bond book and capitalization. </li>
<li>We have little concern about a collapse in the Japanese housing market and see little impact from higher defaults on capitalization. </li>
<li>We see a modest 19% downside if management continues to build up excess capital.  Hibiki's plan points to over 20% upside. </li>
</ul>


The share price has declined by 15% from its March high, perhaps on misplaced concerns about its HTM bond book and capitalization. 
We have little concern about a collapse in the Japanese housing market and see little impact from higher defaults on capitalization. 
We see a modest 19% downside if management continues to build up excess capital.  Hibiki's plan points to over 20% upside. 


Zenkoku Hosho (7164) | The (Hibiki) Path to a Higher Share Price

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 Rebalance to boot <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> and add <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9936:1" rel="noopener">Orix Corp (8591 JP)</a> occurs today at the close. </li>
<li>The announcement was not a surprise per se, but BOTH have outperformed their Peer Baskets since the announcement, ORIX by a long ways.</li>
<li>ORIX is a bigger deal, Shinsei is worth buying a dip.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 Rebalance to boot Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) and add Orix Corp (8591 JP) occurs today at the close. 
The announcement was not a surprise per se, but BOTH have outperformed their Peer Baskets since the announcement, ORIX by a long ways.
ORIX is a bigger deal, Shinsei is worth buying a dip.


Nikkei 225 Rebalance Day - Shinsei Dip Chance?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9936:1" rel="noopener">Orix Corp (8591)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> at the close of trading on 1 April due to Shinsei Bank not trading on the Prime Market.</li>
<li>We estimate there will be passive buying of 27.5m shares on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9936:1" rel="noopener">Orix Corp (8591 JP)</a> while there will be selling of 2.75m shares on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a> </li>
<li>There appears to be some pre-positioning on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9936:1" rel="noopener">Orix Corp (8591 JP)</a> - the stock could outperform heading into index inclusion. </li>
</ul>



Orix Corp (8591) replaces Shinsei Bank (8303) in the Nikkei 225 at the close of trading on 1 April due to Shinsei Bank not trading on the Prime Market.
We estimate there will be passive buying of 27.5m shares on Orix Corp (8591 JP) while there will be selling of 2.75m shares on Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) 
There appears to be some pre-positioning on Orix Corp (8591 JP) - the stock could outperform heading into index inclusion. 


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: ORIX (8591) Replaces Shinsei Bank (8303)

Japan

Zenkoku Hosho Co. Ltd. is a credit guarantee company mainly for real estate or education loans. The company also provides insurance agency and credit check services.

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Zenkoku Hosho (7164 JP)

Quiddity Leaderboard JPX-Nikkei 400: Final Predictions for August 2023

I expect the JPX-Nikkei Index Changes announcement to be on 7th August 2023 and the Inclusion/Exclusion events to be at the close of 30th August...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard JPX-Nikkei 400: End-May 2023

There are 46 Potential ADDs and 44 Potential DELs (unique names) presented in the current Quiddity Leaderboard. The MED conviction potential ADDs...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Nikkei 225 Rebalance Day - Shinsei Dip Chance?

Nikkei 225 Rebalance Day. Shinsei Out. ORIX In. Shinsei hasn't fallen in preparation but Orix is up strongly vs Peers in the period. There are two...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: ORIX (8591) Replaces Shinsei Bank (8303)

Orix Corp replaces Shinsei Bank in the Nikkei225 Index at the close on 1 April. Passive trackers will need to buy 27.5m shares of Orix and sell...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard JPX-Nikkei 400: Final Predictions for August 2023

I expect the JPX-Nikkei Index Changes announcement to be on 7th August 2023 and the Inclusion/Exclusion events to be at the close of 30th August...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard JPX-Nikkei 400: End-May 2023

There are 46 Potential ADDs and 44 Potential DELs (unique names) presented in the current Quiddity Leaderboard. The MED conviction potential ADDs...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Zenkoku Hosho (7164) | The (Hibiki) Path to a Higher Share Price

We believe that the recent sell-off in the share price of Zenkoku Hosho represents a good opportunity to pick up the stock at a reasonable...

Mark Chadwick

Nikkei 225 Rebalance Day - Shinsei Dip Chance?

Nikkei 225 Rebalance Day. Shinsei Out. ORIX In. Shinsei hasn't fallen in preparation but Orix is up strongly vs Peers in the period. There are two...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: ORIX (8591) Replaces Shinsei Bank (8303)

Orix Corp replaces Shinsei Bank in the Nikkei225 Index at the close on 1 April. Passive trackers will need to buy 27.5m shares of Orix and sell...

Brian Freitas